* Should Silver stop trying to predict sporting events and just stick to politics? Update your priors here and especially here.
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prior probability 
Given that they’ve done pretty well at 538 with pretty much every other game in the knock-out stage of the tournament, he probably shouldn’t quit just yet.
True … my question was more tongue-in-cheek than sincere … I see the improbable outcome of the 8 July Brasil-Germany match as a “black swan” that no one could have predicted
I know it was tongue in cheek, and I knew it when I posted my comment. I must have been feeling unusually humorless at the time, since I don’t normally go out of my way to defend Nate Silver. It is pretty funny to see a prediction that confident go that badly awry…