# Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

## What Bayes is: a test

Note: This is my third blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. In my previous post, I explained that the Bayesian reasoning “is not just a method of drawing inferences from observations or evidence … Continue reading

## Bayes is not an oracle

Note: This is my first blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. It’s the “1st of tha month,” so as promised let’s begin my series of Bayesian blog posts, and let me start by … Continue reading

## Back to Bayesian Basics

This blog is called “prior probability,” which refers to a special idea in the world of Bayesian probability theory, the idea of a “prior”: one’s personal or subjective belief/probability estimate of an event, before any data is collected or observed. … Continue reading

## True or false?

Background: The geometry problem pictured below, which popped up in my Twitter feed, was originally assigned on a seven-year-old’s math homework. For my part, I thought at first that the answer had to be “false,” but after seeing some of … Continue reading

## PSA: vaccine distribution should be FCFS

I agree with the sentiment of my colleague Andrew Fleischman (@ASFleischman), who tweeted the following rhetorical question: “… I wonder how vaccine rollout would have gone if it was just first come, first serve[?]” The answer, of course, is pretty … Continue reading

## Lego Colosseum

The Lego image pictured below is from Dr Abigail Graham (@abby_fecit), an archaeology-minded historian and Romanophile. Her article is titled: “Reconstructing the Past: Lego Colosseum & 8 reasons why Lego is great training for an archaeologist.” Source: https://bit.ly/37xiwt2

## Do not fold, spindle, or mutilate: a cultural history of the punch card

That is the title of this classic paper by Steven Lubar, which was published in 1992 in Volume 15 of The Journal of American Culture. What other arcane or obsolete physical objects are deserving of having their cultural histories told? … Continue reading

## What is Bitcoin?

Which one?! My “bitcoin prior” is that Bitcoin is insanely-overvalued, that it’s a purely speculative “bubble” akin to the South Sea Bubble of 1720 or the even more famous episode of Tulip mania in 17th-Century Amsterdam. Now that I see … Continue reading

## Taxonomy of pillar styles

I am considering adding a new “Taxonomy Tuesdays” section as a regular feature on this blog. In the meantime, enjoy …

## Taxonomy of dad vibes

This tongue-in-cheek taxonomy is across three dimensions: cartoon avatar, leisure-time activity, and footwear. What other dimensions might be important, e.g. latest-book read, type of car, etc.?