According to Wikipedia, asteroids with a 1 km diameter strike Earth every 500,000 years on average. Moreover, “Large collisions–with 5 km (3 mi) objects–happen approximately once every twenty million years. The last known impact of an object of 10 km (6 mi) or more in diameter was at the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event 66 million years ago.” You do the math …
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In Conversation with Legal and Moral Philosophers
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PhD, Jagiellonian University
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a personal view of the theory of computation
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Logic at Columbia University
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prior probability 