There are reports that Major League Baseball will announce some player suspensions this Monday, 5 August. What is the probability that star player Alex Rodriguez will be suspended?
(a) No penalty
(b) Small suspension (e.g., until the end of the season)
(c) Big suspension (e.g., this season and all of next season)
(d) Lifetime ban
More importantly, where did you get your prior from and how confident are you in its accuracy?
Bonus Question: If b, c, or d occurs, what is the probability that A-Rod will appeal his suspension and still play for the Yankees this season?
prior probability 
My initial guess would have been d. But I then thought c was more probable. I got this after watching all the news over the weekend. Turns out c was the correct answer. I was very confident that he would have received a lifetime ban but I guess this season and next is just as bad because of his age and the cost it would be for another team to acquire him.
Good point … c might very well be the equivalent of a lifetime ban since A-Rod would be past his prime after such a long suspension. Also, I like your “Bayesian updating” to arrive at c