This blog is about the concept of “prior probability” and how it applies to life, love, and law. But what is a “prior probability”? Wikipedia offers the following technical definition of this concept: “… a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity p … is the probability distribution that would express one’s uncertainty about p … It is meant to attribute uncertainty rather than randomness to the uncertain quantity. The unknown quantity may be a parameter or latent variable.” Here is an easier and simpler definition. Say there is some X which you are uncertain about (such as the total number of blue jelly beans in the jar below). Your prior about X represents your original or initial estimate of X. This idea is the foundation of Bayesian analysis and modern probability theory and has important implications in many different domains … Stay tuned for more.