Bayesian baseball

File:Yasiel Puig 2.jpg

If you are a baseball fan, you might know the batting average or on-base percentage (OBP) of your favorite player, such as Yasiel Puig or Dustin Pedroia (two of prior probability‘s favorite players). But do you know your favorite player’s “Run Production Average” or RPA? According to Mike Gimbel, one of the pioneers in the field of sabermetrics (or the use of statistical methods to analyze player performance in baseball games), “The RPA is a comprehensive rating that takes into account offensive ability, defensive ability, pitching, the position played, the stadium where the performance took place, the age of the player and even his minor league performance.” More precisely, the RPA is a combined statistic that assigns the following weights to each of the following events:

Single = .29 runs
Double      = .41 runs
Triple      = .70 runs
Home Run      = 1.44 runs
Walk, Hit-By-Pitch (HBP) & Reached-on-an-error      = .165 runs
Extra Base taken as a runner      = .075 runs
Stolen Base, Wild Pitch & Balk      = .100 runs
Caught Stealing & Picked-off      = -.165 runs
Ground into Double Play      = -.165 runs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more on the life and times of Mike Gimbel, check out this recent article by Hua Hsu on Grantland

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About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
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