That is the title of this report by Laura Tedesco and Rut Diamint, which was just published in Foreign Affairs. (Alas, annoyingly, the article is paywalled, but you can obtain a link to an ungated version of the article by clicking on the “continue reading” icon and then entering your email address.) In any case, the key to understanding what is happening in Cuba today is to recognize the undeniable fact that the Cuban people are ruled by a gerontic and obsolete military dictatorship.