Today (Nov. 22) is the 58th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Did the Warren Commission lie to us about Lee Harvey Oswald (i.e. the improbable “lone gunman” theory), or did the commission get it right? Either way, what if we could place bets on whether there was a conspiracy or not to kill the president? (As it happens, I propose just such a “retrodiction market” here.)
Although most North Americans are celebrating Thanksgiving today, we must never forget that on this day 55 years ago (22 Nov. 1963) President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas. What if the presidential motorcade had continued down Main Street (further away from the book depository building where the assassin Lee Harvey Oswald was lying in wait) instead of going down Elm Street?
Credit: Donald Roberdeau
prior probability 