After attending the Manifest festival at Berkeley on June 7-9, where I met and befriended the founders of the Manifold prediction-market platform, I posted my first betting-market on their user-friendly website a few days ago; see here or tweet below:

My goal is to post a new question every other Monday; in the meantime, I will have more to say about Manifold and will respond to this powerful critique of prediction markets sometime next week.