Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Note: This is my sixth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. In this post I present the logic of my Bayesian model of litigation outcomes in algebraic terms as follows: Pr(A|B) = ([Pr(B|A)] … Continue reading →

Note: This is my fifth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. Why do I prefer Bayes over Blackstone? It was over a century ago that the great Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to … Continue reading →

Note: This is my fourth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. I resume by Bayesian blog series by explaining why Bayesian methods are like a meta-test, a way of testing the reliability of … Continue reading →

Alternative title: Style versus Substance I admit that I am a huge fan of AOC’s style and of her general anti-establishment rebelliousness, but in this short video clip the great Thomas Sowell points out some devastating problems and logical fallacies … Continue reading →

Farewell, Twitter and Facebook!!! I am interrupting my series of Bayesian blog posts to let people know that I have decided to “self-cancel” my social media presence by closing my social media accounts during Lent. In any case, I was … Continue reading →

Note: This is my third blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. Tests are imperfect; that is, they sometimes detect things that do not exist (“false alarms” or false positives) and miss things that … Continue reading →

Note: This is my second blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. In my previous post, I explained that Bayesian reasoning “is not just a method of drawing inferences from observations or evidence presented; … Continue reading →

Note: This is my first blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. It’s the “1st of tha month,” so as promised let’s begin my series of Bayesian blog posts, and let me start by … Continue reading →

This blog is called “prior probability,” which refers to a special idea in the world of Bayesian probability theory, the idea of a “prior”: one’s personal or subjective belief/probability estimate of an event, before any data is collected or observed. … Continue reading →

Background: The geometry problem pictured below, which popped up in my Twitter feed, was originally assigned on a seven-year-old’s math homework. For my part, I thought at first that the answer had to be “false,” but after seeing some of … Continue reading →