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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
World Truth League White Paper
Is it possible to test the truth-values of popular or entrenched conspiracy theories without resorting to censorship? To this end, Steve Kuhn and yours truly have just posted our new “World Truth League White Paper” to SSRN. In brief, we … Continue reading
Monday music: *Septemberizing Piano*
Check out this enchanting piano version of the classic late 70’s song “September” from the 2023 animated Spanish film Robot Dreams. My daughter Adys Ann and I were finally able to catch this little gem of a movie on the … Continue reading
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Singapore Sunday
Via one of my favorite specialty blogs, “Remember Singapore“: https://remembersingapore.org Originally called the Hill Street Police Station and Barracks, the majestic six-storey Neoclassical-style colonial building was Singapore’s largest … Old Hill Street Police Station, the Iconic Colourful Landmark by the … Continue reading
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Steelmanning the World Truth League
Alternative title: Is the World Truth League a Keynesian Beauty Contest? [Revised July 1, 2024] Two of my previous posts (see here and here) have presented a tentative sketch of my colleague and friend Steve Kuhn’s original idea for a … Continue reading
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Friday funnies: presidential debate bingo card
You’re welcome!
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*The World Truth League*
How can we combat fake news and falsehoods without resorting to censorship? In my previous post, I introduced the general idea of a World Truth League, where teams of prominent experts, public intellectuals, and others would be able to compete … Continue reading
How to expand the appeal of information markets (reply to Whitaker & Mazlich, part 2)
My previous post surveyed this powerful critique of information markets made by Nick Whitaker and J. Zachary Mazlish. Among other things, Whitaker and Mazlish identify three types of investors — savers, gamblers, and sharps — and explain why existing information … Continue reading
Reply to Whitaker & Mazlich’s critique of information markets
I linked to Nick Whitaker and J. Zachary Mazlish’s powerful critique of existing prediction markets (“Why prediction markets aren’t popular“; see above) in one of my previous posts (see here), where I also promised that I would respond to their … Continue reading
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Twitter Tuesday: Antoni Gaudi
Despite the unceasing and unfathomable efforts of Elon Musk to destroy the Twitter platform (see here, for example), I am still often able to find little eclectic gems like this thread:
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prior probability 