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A quick critique of Nate Silver’s new website
The new FiveThirtyEight website, which launched last Monday (17 March 2014), purports to offer data journalism in a wide variety of fields, not just politics (the original focus of the original FiveThirtyEight website), but also economics, science, sports, and (our favorite) “life”. … Continue reading
Fair or foul? Bayesian reasoning and Flight 370
Note: this post was revised and expanded during the morning of 20 March 2014. What happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370? Specifically, do you have any “priors” about what may have happened, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, pilot error, mechanical failure, an electrical … Continue reading
Stephen Hawking wins theoretical physics bet …
Or has he? Prof. Hawking had bet Neil Turok, the director of the Perimeter Institute in Canada, that gravitational waves from the cosmic big bang would eventually be detected. But according to this report in The Guardian, Dr. Turok refuses to pay up … for now. … Continue reading
Shadow prediction markets?
In our previous post (see Fate of Flight 370 … below), we quixotically called for the creation of a single-event prediction market in order to (1) bypass all the rampant speculation regarding the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines flight, which has been missing since 8 … Continue reading
The fate of Flight 370? An urgent call for single-event prediction markets …
A single-event prediction market might make it easier to determine more rigorously the probabilities of what really happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Presently, a wide variety of conjectures and conspiracy theories are swirling around (especially on CNN) about what might … Continue reading
What’s the best* way to find a missing Boeing 777?
a. Police — call up the FBI, INTERPOL, etc. to pursue all possible leads and conduct a formal police investigation of the passengers, crew, and cargo aboard the missing jet. b. Military — call up the commanding officers of the US Navy, NATO, … Continue reading
Death penalty affirmative action?
In other words, death penalty justice is not blind. Hat tip to Ian Millhiser for compiling the data and preparing the above diagrams.
Who researches the researchers?
John Ioannidis does, that’s who. His 2005 paper “Why most published research findings are false” created quite a stir in academia, and now Dr Ioannidis is at it again with a new large-scale research project, the Meta-Research Innovation Center, at Stanford University. … Continue reading
The most important date in history?
On March 12, 1989, the same year the Berlin Wall fell, Tim Berners-Lee, a researcher at CERN, wrote up and distributed a revolutionary proposal to improve information flows among computers: “a ‘web’ of notes with links between them.” (See diagram below from Berners-Lee’s proposal.) … Continue reading
Foxes versus hedgehogs
Have you heard the ancient proverb: The hedgehog knows one big thing; the fox, many little things …? Nate Silver sure has. Mr Silver is relaunching his FiveThirtyEight blog this Monday, 17 March 2014, with this old proverb in mind. For … Continue reading
