prior probability

One of the things I miss the most about the Island of Puerto Rico, where I lived from 1993 to 2009, is the parranda, a musical tradition that is celebrated during the Christmas holiday season, which in Puerto Rico extends all the way to Three Kings Day in January. (PS: This is another reason why I would love Puerto Rico to become the 51st State — people in the mainland U.S. don’t know what they are missing!)

Thirty-six hours into my Yuletide “digital detox” challenge (see here), four judges on the Colorado Supreme Court (pictured below) dropped a proverbial bombshell on the political world, voting by a 4 to 3 margin to keep Donald J. Trump off their state’s ballot in 2024. (See here, for example.) Among other things, four members of this committee of Rocky Mountain philosopher kings concluded that the former president “engaged in” an insurrection (the 6 January riot) and is therefore disqualified from federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Alas, there is one big problem with the court’s committee’s decision: Trump has yet to be convicted of insurrection or treason. Although the Colorado judges dutifully cite the work of law professors like William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen to skirt this problem (here is their legal opinion), they did not bother to refer to my reply to Baude & Paulsen (surprise, surpise!), where I explain why the Disqualification Clause cannot be self-executing. For now, however, I just want conclude this post with an observation and a question. The 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary will be held on 5 March 2024 (about nine weeks from today), but will the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) intervene before then?

Ho, ho, ho! I just received an early Christmas gift from the History of Economic Ideas, a refereed journal specializing in the history of economic thought (see here). My paper “Adam Smith, David Hume, and the Balliol College Conspiracy” was accepted for publication! Also, an anonymous referee made some good suggestions, so I will be revising my work during the holiday break; in the meantime, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, etc.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4434381

In anticipation of my visit to the idyllic Soggy Dollar beach bar on the Carribean island of Jost Van Dyke in the BVI, I declared Monday (18 December) my “digital detox day”, and for the most part my anti-Internet challenge was a resounding success: I read the first 200 pages of Robert Darnton’s excellent French history book “The Revolutionary Temper” as well as some technical papers on degrees of belief. Alas, the Soggy Dollar beach bar played some great music, so I just had to Shazam some of the catchy songs on their playlist, including this one (PG-13):

Christmas is just around the corner — seven days away — so I hereby declare this Monday, 18 December (instead of Sunday, 10 December) my own personal “Digital Detox Day“! I am therefore taking the next day or two off from the Internet (Amazon, blogs, email, social media, etc.) to spend with my family and catch up on some reading. Won’t you join me?

I confess: I really love this all-time Mariah Carey classic!

Double bonus “Carpool Karaoke” and Yu Huiyeol’s “K-pop” versions below:

Blast from the past (2016), via the now-defunct blog Unlikely Words.

We’ve all by now seen this excellent Die Hard Christmas tree ornament, but since it got spread around virally so late in the year no one had any time…

How to make your own Die Hard Christmas tree ornament.

Via my favorite expat blog View from the Back. The shop is À la Mère de Famille (pictured below), and it was founded in 1760. I wonder if Adam Smith or his pupil the 3rd Duke of Buccleugh visited this place in 1766 during their sojourn in the City of Lights. Merry Christmas!

I’ve recently returned from a(nother) trip to Paris  – more of which in the New Year – where, aside from visiting the latest exhibitions, window …

The oldest sweetie shop in Paris

Christmas is just 11 days away! In addition to a number of research articles, essays, etc., I will be reading the following books — and blogging about them — during the holidays:

• Robert Darnton, The Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 (Norton, 2024); book cover pictured below.
• Shaun Harris, The Hemingway Thief (Seventh Street Books, 2016).
• Franz Huber, Belief and Degrees of Belief (Springer, 2009).
• Paul Sagar, Adam Smith Reconsidered: History, Liberty, and the Foundations of Modern Politics (Princeton, 2022).