prior probability

I drove down to Miami this week to take my son to the airport — he will be studying abroad in Spain this semester, and Iberia has a direct flight from Miami to Madrid.

I just finished drafting the Spring 2022 Syllabus for my large business law survey course. Below are a few select pages from my new and improved syllabus.

My daughter Adys Ann and I went to Cocoa Beach on Three Kings Day (6 Jan.) to “hang out” and see a SpaceX rocket launch.

The day after Three Kings Day (6 Jan.), our family Christmas tree transforms into an “North American football tree” and stays up until the Super Bowl. Division champions and wild card contenders go on top; bad teams go on the bottom.

In Memoriam: Bella Benvenutti

Our hearts are broken, yet again. My wife and I are mourning another tragic and untimely loss. My former student and dear friend Jan Rene Benvenutti lost the love of his life — his beloved daughter Bella, who was only seven years old.

In honor of my late colleague and dear friend Ray Sturm (pictured below), today I am posting a link to his most-cited work, his 2003 paper “Investor Confidence and Returns Following Large One-Day Price Changes” in which Ray identified an asymmetry in investor reaction to stock market price shocks. In Ray’s own words, “my findings indicate that investors respond differently to negative price shocks than to positive price shocks. In particular, large price decreases generally drive positive post-event abnormal returns, while large price increases do not drive positive or negative abnormal returns.” According to Google Scholar, Ray’s 2003 price-shock paper has been cited at least 50 times, a remarkable and noteworthy feat in the world of academia.