prior probability

Alain and I expanded on the introduction to our work-in-progress, “The Philosopher’s Muses: Adam Smith in the Salons of Paris“, by adding the following passages (footnotes omitted):

“Adam Smith resided in the Faubourg Saint-Germain in Paris for several months in 1766. In addition, several pieces of primary evidence — correspondence and journal entries to or from several of Smith’s close contacts at the time, including his fellow Scotsmen, Seignelay Colbert de Castlehill (the Abbé Colbert) and David Hume, as well as the historian Edward Gibbon and the aesthete Horace Walpole — confirm that Smith met three of the leading salonnières of Paris during his 1766 sojourn in Paris: the Comtesse de Boufflers (1725-1800), Madame du Deffand (1696-1780), and the Duchesse d’Enville (1716-1797). Before proceeding any further, these sources are reprinted in chronological order below for reference:

“1-A. Horace Walpole

“The earliest of our primary sources is an entry dated 30 March 1766 in Horace Walpole’s travel journal: ‘To Mme du Deffand. Mr Smith came.’ (reprinted in Lewis 1739, p. 310) At the time, Walpole and Smith were both residing in the same Parisian townhouse in the Faubourg Saint-Germain.

“1-B. Comtesse de Boufflers to David Hume

“Another piece of evidence is a 6 May 1766 letter from the Comtesse de Boufflers addressed to David Hume. Among other things, the Comtesse de Boufflers confirms that she has met Adam Smith: ‘Je vous ai dit, ce me semble, que j’ai fait connoissance avec M. Smith, et que, pour l’amour de vous, je l’avois fort accueilli.’ (reprinted in Burton 1849, pp. 237-238)

“1-C. Colbert de Castlehill to Adam Smith

“A third piece of evidence is a passage in a letter dated 18 September 1766 addressed directly to Adam Smith:

Et tu, Adam Smith, philosophe de Glasgow, héros et idole des high-broad Ladys, que fais tu, mon cher ami? Comment gouvernes tu La duchesse d’Anville et Mad. de Boufflers, ou ton coeur est il toujours épris des charms de Mad. Nicol et des apparent apparens que laches de cette autre dame de Fife, que vous aimees tant? (reprinted in Alcouffe & Massot-Bordenave 2020, pp. 260-261; see also Mossner & Ross 1987, p. 167, Corr. No. 91)

“Although the identity of the letter’s author is disguised under an abbreviated pseudonym — ‘Le Gr. Vic. Eccossois’ or Grand Viccaire Eccossois — by all accounts this French-speaking “Great Scottish Vicar” was none other than Seignelay Colbert de Castle-Hill, also known as Abbé Colbert, a fellow Scotsman and Smith’s ‘chief guide and friend’ during his extended 18-month sojourn in the South of France.

“1-D. Edward Gibbon to Adam Smith

“Our last primary source is an 18 November 1777 letter from the great Edward Gibbon addressed to Adam Smith:

After a very pleasant summer passed in Paris where I often heard your name, and saw several of your friends particularly the Dutchess Danville, and the Countess de Bouflers, I returned to England about the beginning of this Month. (reprinted in Mossner & Ross 1987, Corr. No. 187)

“Although Gibbon wrote this letter over ten years after Smith’s 1766 sojourn in Paris, the English historian not only mentions two of the leading salonnières of the City of Light by name, the Duchesse d’Enville and Comtesse de Boufflers (both of whom are also mentioned in Colbert’s 18 September 1766 letter); more importantly, he also refers to them as ‘friends’ of Smith.”

The best and most conplete website on all things Adam Smith — Adam Smith Works or ASW for short — has just published my “Plea to Adam Smith Scholars“! (Previously, ASW published my synopsis on “Adam Smith’s Lost Loves.”)

I mentioned in a previous post (see here) that I was hoping to complete by 8 August the first draft of a book-length manuscript that I have been working on for some time. The good news is that I am just about done, but with that said, I am going to need a few more days to proofread my work and tie up a few loose ends. I will therefore report back on Monday, 18 August.

Shout to the editors of The Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice for selecting my forthcoming academic article “Adam Smith’s Blind Spot” as part of the Editors’ Choice collection for the journal. The collection consists of six research papers in all, and you may view my work as well as the rest of the collection here: Editors Choice JPFPC

Most importantly, this means that my article will be free to access until 31 January 2026.

More details are available here.

FYI: “Buena Vista Social Club” is a musical production that had an off-Broadway run at the Atlantic Theater Company in 2023 and then transferred to Broadway in 2025, opening at the Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre. The musical is set in Havana and spans from the 1950s to the 1990s, highlighting the lives of four prominent Cuban artists and the impact Fidel Castro’s dictatorship had on them at the time, culminaring with their eventual collaboration in 1997 on the landmark album Buena Vista Social Club. ¡Viva Cuba Libre!

Why have so many aviation disasters occured on this day (9 August) in history? Via Wikipedia; links in the original:

• 9 Aug 1970: LANSA Flight 502 crashes after takeoff from Alejandro Velasco Astete International Airport in Cusco, Peru, killing 99 of the 100 people on board, as well as two people on the ground.
• 9 Aug 1995: Aviateca Flight 901 crashes into the San Vicente volcano in El Salvador, killing all 65 people on board.
• 9 Aug 2007: Air Moorea Flight 1121 crashes after takeoff from Moorea Airport in French Polynesia, killing all 20 people on board.
• 9 Aug 2024: Voepass Linhas Aéreas Flight 2283 crashes near Vinhedo, São Paulo, killing all 62 people on board.