prior probability

For us, July is a month full of memorable milestones and quirky anniversaries. One year ago this month, for example, Rowman & Littlefield published The Economics of the Undead. (Our contribution to this book–a little essay titled “Buy or Bite?” appears in Chapter 12–also led to this fun feature on Freakonomics Radio.) Two years ago this month, we started this scholarly blog. Although our tagline is “Hey, where did you get your priors?“–a strange question that lots of people refuse to answer or even acknowledge–this blog is really dedicated to the proposition that our subjective beliefs don’t matter as much as our ability and willingness to update our priors in light of new evidence. Three years ago this month, we wrote up a formal paper applying Bayesian methods to law in the friendly and timeless city of Amsterdam, our second-favorite city in the world (La Habana, Cuba is still our favorite)–a paper that would eventually lead to the publication of our first peer-reviewed article in the European Journal of Legal Studies–, and five years ago this month, we visited Southeast Asia for the first time: a memorable month-long excursion by rail through the city-state of Singapore, the polyglot metropolis of Kuala Lumpur, the island of Penang, the hustle and bustle of Bangkok, and the temples of Angkor Wat. We definitely wish to return one day. We could go on and on … but, most importantly, fifteen years ago this month, our eldest daughter Adela Luisa was born in San Juan, P.R. Happy Birthday, Adela … We love you!

How much would it cost you to procure a complete set of English-language Wikipedia articles in book form? An art gallery in New York City is sponsoring an exhibition titled From Aaaaa! to ZZZap!, featuring work from the Print Wikipedia series by Michael Mandiberg. The Wikipedia exhibit, however, doesn’t actually feature a complete, physical copy of Wikipedia. Instead, according to the gallery’s description of the work, it “draws attention to the sheer size of the encyclopedia’s content and the impossibility of rendering Wikipedia as a material object in fixed form.” (Notice that the word “impossibility” in the previous sentence is really a substitute for “costly.”) But, in theory, how much would a complete copy of Wikipedia cost you? Below the fold is an excerpt by James Vincent, writing for The Verge: Continue reading →

Anna M. Phillips, a writer for the Tampa Bay Times (warning: the Tampa Bay Times website at the previous link has an annoying video ad that starts automatically when you click on the link), is reporting that a county judge will allow former professional wrestler “Hulk Hogan” to sport a bandana in the courtroom during his invasion-of-privacy trial against the website Gawker, which is scheduled to go to trial next week. In addition, the judge ruled that the Hulkster must be called by his geeky real name, Terry Gene Bollea, during the trial proceedings: Continue reading →

Roger Goodell, the unpopular Commissioner of the NFL, recently heard Tom Brady’s appeal in the now-infamous “Deflategate” or “Ballghazi” case. As things stand now, the Commissioner has only two options: (i) reduce Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, or (ii) do nothing (let Brady’s four-game suspension stand as is). Why doesn’t Mr Goodell have a third option: (iii) increase Brady’s suspension by n number of games? If this third option were available in pro sports, maybe fewer players would appeal their suspensions. As things stand now, there is no downside to a player appealing an adverse decision by his sports league …