prior probability

      Hat tip: Holger Zschaepitz (via Twitter).

Which side is bluffing in the current Game of Chicken* between Greece and the EU? (*Or is it a “War of Attrition”?) Maybe we should be asking a different question: Who has more to lose if Greece were to leave the EU? From yesterday’s Telegraph (UK), for example, we see there are “deadlines”:

The European Union faces “the most critical” moment in its 64-year history, after leaders warned they had five days to prevent Greece from careering out of the euro and into a full blown humanitarian crisis.

And then there are deadlines:

Without any fresh injection of emergency funds, Greece is set to default on a €4.2bn payment to the European Central Bank in 12 days time, putting it on the inexorable path of issuing an alternative currency and a chaotic eurozone exit.

Enough already … Why hasn’t the European Union just kicked Greece out of the EU already? Doesn’t Greece need the EU more than the EU needs Greece? Or is it the other way around? After all, isn’t it possible that a Greek exit (or “Grexit”) from the EU would irreparably weaken the EU and set in motion the complete disintegration of the Euro as a single currency–much like Slovenia’s early exit from Yugoslavia led to the entire collapse of that Balkan federation? So, who has more to lose if Greece leaves the EU?

How are lawyers, law firms, and law professors all connected in a given legal jurisdiction? Using the advanced mapping and mathematical methods of network theory, our close friend and colleague Orlando I. Martinez-Garcia, a respected attorney and adjunct in the Social Science Department of the University of Puerto Rico (Arecibo Campus), is exploring the “ecological environment” of the legal profession in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. We can’t wait to read the full paper … Network Map Credit (above): Orlando I. Martinez-Garcia.

The facts: (a) A right-wing politician makes an indecent proposal in the National Review regarding the Supreme Court. (b) An intellectual judge, responding to this silly proposal, then calls out the politician on his personal blog–a wonderful blog, by the way, called “Hercules and the Umpire“–opining that the politician is “demonstrably unfit to become President.” (c) A right-wing law professor, in turn, chimes in, “surreplying” to the judge on a right-wing legal blog (The Volokh Conspiracy), accusing our friend the judge of violating Canon 5 of the Judicial Code of Conduct, which prohibits judges from “publicly endorsing or opposing a candidate for public office.” So, what’s the remedy here? Admonition? (Boring.) In any case, to the extent the act of voting (like the act of blogging or talking) is a public act, one could argue that Canon 5, taken literally, thus prohibits judges from voting!

 How did we all get stuck using the Gregorian calendar? Aside from the QWERTY problem, can you think of any other examples of a network effect keeping us in a suboptimal equilibrium? How about LinkedIn, licensure requirements, or three years of law school? (If you don’t know what a network effect is, look it up!) Hat tip: MrSquig.

The Venus de Milo–the second-most famous work of art housed in the cluttered halls of the Louvre Museum in Paris–is a centuries-old mystery. Has this mystery finally been solved? Check out the full, fascinating article by Virginia Postrel here.

For us, July is a month full of memorable milestones and quirky anniversaries. One year ago this month, for example, Rowman & Littlefield published The Economics of the Undead. (Our contribution to this book–a little essay titled “Buy or Bite?” appears in Chapter 12–also led to this fun feature on Freakonomics Radio.) Two years ago this month, we started this scholarly blog. Although our tagline is “Hey, where did you get your priors?“–a strange question that lots of people refuse to answer or even acknowledge–this blog is really dedicated to the proposition that our subjective beliefs don’t matter as much as our ability and willingness to update our priors in light of new evidence. Three years ago this month, we wrote up a formal paper applying Bayesian methods to law in the friendly and timeless city of Amsterdam, our second-favorite city in the world (La Habana, Cuba is still our favorite)–a paper that would eventually lead to the publication of our first peer-reviewed article in the European Journal of Legal Studies–, and five years ago this month, we visited Southeast Asia for the first time: a memorable month-long excursion by rail through the city-state of Singapore, the polyglot metropolis of Kuala Lumpur, the island of Penang, the hustle and bustle of Bangkok, and the temples of Angkor Wat. We definitely wish to return one day. We could go on and on … but, most importantly, fifteen years ago this month, our eldest daughter Adela Luisa was born in San Juan, P.R. Happy Birthday, Adela … We love you!