prior probability

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_rotation_paradox

See also this 2023 Scientific American article describing an infamous SAT college entrance exam question that everyone got wrong! (It involves the coin rotation paradox.)

Can you imagine an alternate reality in which both Cuba and Cancun (as well as Baja California and most of northern Mexico!) were all part of the United States? What happened?

Via Smithsonian Magazine: “A previously unknown piece of music composed by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart when he was probably in his early teens has been uncovered at a library in Germany.”

I am honored and humbled to have been awarded el premio Don Quijote by the Puerto Rico Bar Association (PRBA) in Orlando, Florida last night (see here), especially considering how I have tilted at so many metaphorical windmills during my academic career, such as the use of “range voting” to break the impasse over Puerto Rico’s political status (here), retrodiction markets to test the truth values of conspiracy theories (here), and auctions to solve the tragedy of the outer space commons (here), just to name a few of my more Quixotic causes. Shout out to my colleagues and friends Tony Anthony Suarez, Joel Montilla, and Rebeca Arenas for making this happen, and shout out to my dear wife Sydjia for her patience, love, and good cheer!

Via the International Adam Smith Society:

We are thrilled to announce a Call for Papers for our 2025 conference at the University of Salento in Lecce, Italy! The conference will take place March…

Call for Papers: 2025 International Adam Smith Society Conference in Lecce, Italy

Note to self: the deadline to submit an abstract/proposal is 1 November.

Having read Homer’s Iliad and listened to Dominic Keating’s epic 19-hour readout of this legendary lyric poem, I can now say that the Iliad‘s reputation as the first great literary masterpiece of the Western canon is totally deserved. In addition, during the next few weeks I will be reading the following works of ancient Greek literature and philosophy:

1. Hesiod, Works and Days
2. Theognis, Elegies
3. Sappho, selected poems
4. Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound
5. Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound
6. Sophocles, Oedipus the King
7. Sophocles, Antigone
8. Euripides, Hippolytus
9. Euripides, Medea
10. Aristophanes, Lysistrata
11. Aristophanes, Clouds

Author’s note: Below the fold is my first formal writing assignment for my graduate seminar on ancient Greek and Roman literature/philosophy. All references to the Iliad are to the Caroline Alexander translation of Homer’s great epic.

Author’s note: the excerpt below is from the conclusion of my revised paper “Adam Smith in the City of Lights“.

Oct. 27, 1766. The Duke of Buccleuch, I’m told, is arrived. He [Henry] and Lady Frances are all she [Lady Dalkeith] has left of six. (Fay 1956, p. 158.)

Smith’s his first melancholy duty [upon his return to London] would be to accompany his pupil, the Duke of Buccleuch, in a cortége to the family home on Grosvenor Square, bringing the body of the younger brother, and somehow find words to express to Lady Dalkeith his sorrow and regret about the loss of her son while in his charge (Ross 2010, p. 234.)

The first of the two passages above is a private journal entry in the diary of Lady Mary Coke, Hew’s aunt and Lady Dalkeith’s (Hew’s mother) youngest sister. If her account is indeed accurate, it would mean that Duke Henry and his tutor had cut short their grand tour and returned to London as early as the end of October.

Upon their hasty return to London it is reported that Smith and Duke Henry brought back with them no less than three trunks (Alcouffe & Massot-Bordenave 2020, p. 204), presumably full of books, souvenirs, and other keepsakes. Among their Paris mementos was a “sensitively-rendered miniature” (see image below) of Hew Campbell Scott painted by the famed French artist Jean-Baptiste Greuze (Ross 2010, p. 234). This one tangible artifact of Smith’s time in Paris is an oil on canvas, and it is relatively small, measuring 64.1 x 52.7 centimeters or about 25.2 x 20.7 inches (Buccleuch Collections/Bridgeman Images n.d.). It shows Hew Campbell Scott in the uniform of the 3rd Foot Guards in half-length, presenting Hew’s visage and his body from the waist up. Although we do not know exactly when or where Hew Campbell Scott sat for his portrait, the artist, Jean-Baptiste Greuze, was settled in the French capital at this time (Dilke 1911).

Alas, it was Smith’s somber task to place this little portrait in the hands of Hew’s mother, Lady Dalkeith. (Ross 2010, p. 234.) According to Ross (2010, p. 232), Hew’s remains were subsequently interred at Dalkeith, the ancestral home of the Buccleuch clan. If so, are his remains still there? In addition, this final chapter of Smith’s last days in Paris poses many other unanswered questions. 

Why, pray tell, did Smith address his letters announcing Hew’s illness and death to Hew’s young sister, Lady Frances, and not to his mother, Lady Dalkeith or to his stepfather Lord Townshend? Also, in his correspondence with Lady Frances, Smith had initially described Hew’s condition as a “fever”, but what was the true cause of his death? Did Hew die of natural causes or was he poisoned? Most importantly, regardless of the cause of Hew’s fatal illness, what were the legal ramifications for Smith, if any, of the death of a minor under his care in a foreign country?