Thirty-six hours into my Yuletide “digital detox” challenge (see here), four judges on the Colorado Supreme Court (pictured below) dropped a proverbial bombshell on the political world, voting by a 4 to 3 margin to keep Donald J. Trump off their state’s ballot in 2024. (See here, for example.) Among other things, four members of this committee of Rocky Mountain philosopher kings concluded that the former president “engaged in” an insurrection (the 6 January riot) and is therefore disqualified from federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Alas, there is one big problem with the court’s committee’s decision: Trump has yet to be convicted of insurrection or treason. Although the Colorado judges dutifully cite the work of law professors like William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen to skirt this problem (here is their legal opinion), they did not bother to refer to my reply to Baude & Paulsen (surprise, surpise!), where I explain why the Disqualification Clause cannot be self-executing. For now, however, I just want conclude this post with an observation and a question. The 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary will be held on 5 March 2024 (about nine weeks from today), but will the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) intervene before then?
prior probability 