Since 1898, Puerto Rico has been a colony of the United States. But two weeks ago (12 Feb. 2014), Senators Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) and Martin Heinrich (D-New Mexico) introduced Senate Bill 2020, the Puerto Rico Status Resolution Act, which would pave the way for Puerto Rico’s admission into the Union as the 51st State. (A majority of the electorate in Puerto Rico, however, would still have to vote (yet again) in favor of Statehood, or “annexation” as the Statehood option is derisively referred to by proponents of the status quo.) So, what is the probability that Puerto Rico will become “Estado 51” by the year 2020? Is it greater than 0.5?
prior probability 