Forty-eight matches will played during the first stage of the World Cup in the nation of Brasil. But how many, pray tell, of those “first 48” matches will be fixed or rigged in some form, e.g. by means of payoffs to players, trainers, or refs? (By the way, we don’t mean to pick on FIFA; after all, the same question can be asked about the NBA, the NCAA, and other sports leagues.) For our part, we would like to believe that the number is very close to zero (since the glory of advancing to the next stage is “priceless”), but we are not so sure about the pre-World Cup qualifying rounds. Addendum: see our post for 1 July.
Who guards the integrity of the beautiful game?
prior probability 
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