The great jurist Oliver Wendell Holmes once said, “The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law.” Remember this as you read this creative class action lawsuit, which was filed in federal court on May 5, 2015 against boxer Manny Pacquiao and his promoter Bob Arum, alleging fraudulent concealment (see paragraphs 27-32 of the complaint), statutory consumer fraud under Nevada law (paragraphs 32-35), and conspiracy to commit fraud (paragraphs 36-39). Nevada attorney Brandon McDonald brought this lawsuit on behalf of all boxing fans who either bought tickets or purchased the pay-per-view to the May 2, 2015 championship bout between Manny “Pac-Man” Pacquiao and Floyd “Money” Mayweather. Under Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, however, a lawsuit must meet the following requirements in order to be certified as a class action:
1. the class is so numerous that joinder of all members is impracticable;
2. there are questions of law or fact common to the class;
3. the claims … of the [named plaintiff] are typical of the claims … of the class; and
4. the [lead attorney] will fairly and adequately protect the interests of the class.
What is the probability that the judge assigned to this case will certify this lawsuit as a class action? Extra credit: What is the probability that this case will settle or go to trial if it does get certified as a class action?