What role does probability theory play in legal trials? What role should it play? In addition to my “Bayesian voting primer“–yes, the same one that an anonymous group of moderators found “unrefereeable“–, I have also been writing up an extended reply to and critique of Ron Allen and Mike Pardo’s “theory of relative plausibility.” Moreover, although my “Bayesian voting primer” and my extended reply to Allen & Pardo appear to be about different domains of laws (the primer is about elections, while the extended reply is about jury trials), both of these papers are ultimately about the same thing: “the aggregation of individual preferences” or decision-making by multi-member bodies. I will have much more to say about this topic in the next day or two.
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