Bayesian Counties?

According to the N.Y. Times map pictured below (and putting aside for the moment possible issues of voter fraud), President-Elect (?) Joe Biden “flipped” many more counties in the 2020 presidential election, including Maricopa County in the pivotal southwestern State of Arizona, than Donald Trump did.

r/MapPorn - County Flips of the 2020 Election(NYT data as of Nov. 22nd)
hat tip: u/jewishjockfromjersey

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
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7 Responses to Bayesian Counties?

  1. bluecat57 says:

    Scary that so few matter.

  2. As an Arizona resident, I believe there are one of two possibilities for why Maricopa County became blue.

    1.) The recent influx of residents from left-wing costal states such as California and Oregon. Also, not to mention a notable number of people migrating from deep-blue Illinois to Arizona.

    2.) Donald Trump pissed off Maricopa County. How? He slaughter one of the state’s sacred lambs. He spoke ill of John McCain. I would argue its best to avoid mocking McCain or Goldwater. Many longtime residents seem to hold both men in high esteem. Mind you, there are exceptions. There many even be quite a few Arizonans who are willing to debate me on my second point.

    • The Ghost of John McCain strikes again!

      • The Ghost of John McCain revealed a snag in Trump’s unconventional political strategies. This probably why most politicians play it safe. When you veer away from Nash-Equilibrium strategies you invite then potential for significant risks ( such as losing elections).

        Then again, it could also be the influx of liberals ( I don’t mean of the Classical variety) into the state. Without precise numbers it’s hard to say precise what made Trump lose AZ.

        I have say, growing up in Taxachusetts , the political “ royal family” was the Kennedys. I am starting to wonder if each region of the country has their own dedicated cult to regionally specific political figures.

        The cult of Goldwater and the cult of McCain is well-and-alive here in the valley of the sun. ( If I had to pick between the two I would take Goldwater, he might was a warmonger, but McCain was utterly terrible).

      • Speaking of regional cults, I was born and grew up in Los Angeles and still remember when California was “Reagan Country”!

      • Oh yes, Regan had a strong run. To this day he has a mythical reputation among Conservatives.

        I often forget he was governor of California.

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