Inspired by the work of polymath Robin Hanson (check out Hanson’s blog here), I first posed this question in August of 2021 (see here). Since then, I published “The Gödel Conspiracy“, which surveys a wide variety of “conspiracy theory theories” and proposes a specialized betting market for conspiracy theories. In addition, many mass-market and scholarly books devoted to conspiracy theories and conspiracy thinking more generally–including Republic of Lies (2019), Conspiracy Theories: A Primer (2020), the Routledge Handbook of Conspiracy Theories (2020), and Stuff They Don’t Want You to Know (2022), just to name a few–have been published in recent years (see below for more titles), but none of these works proposes an effective or foolproof way of distinguishing real conspiracies (like the Wuhan lab-leak cover-up) with fake ones (like most 2020 election fraud claims). That is why I will be presenting a new and improved version of my conspiracy theory betting market proposal at the 13th annual Constitutional Law Colloquium at Loyola Law School in Chicago next Saturday (5 November). I will say more about my modified proposal in the days ahead; for now, it suffices to say that I will expand my betting market to include “fake news” as well as popular conspiracy theories.