Inspired by the work of polymath Robin Hanson (check out Hanson’s blog here), I first posed this question in August of 2021 (see here). Since then, I published “The Gödel Conspiracy“, which surveys a wide variety of “conspiracy theory theories” and proposes a specialized betting market for conspiracy theories. In addition, many mass-market and scholarly books devoted to conspiracy theories and conspiracy thinking more generally–including Republic of Lies (2019), Conspiracy Theories: A Primer (2020), the Routledge Handbook of Conspiracy Theories (2020), and Stuff They Don’t Want You to Know (2022), just to name a few–have been published in recent years (see below for more titles), but none of these works proposes an effective or foolproof way of distinguishing real conspiracies (like the Wuhan lab-leak cover-up) with fake ones (like most 2020 election fraud claims). That is why I will be presenting a new and improved version of my conspiracy theory betting market proposal at the 13th annual Constitutional Law Colloquium at Loyola Law School in Chicago next Saturday (5 November). I will say more about my modified proposal in the days ahead; for now, it suffices to say that I will expand my betting market to include “fake news” as well as popular conspiracy theories.
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I look for to it. I don’t know if it is possible to save democracy even in the absence of conspiracy theories, your application of retrodiction markets can be an effective tool in validating information.
Few signals bridge information asymmetries as effectively as market prices.
I believe prediction markets could even save free speech.
Thanks for the pointer!
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