Tariffs raise prices

Alternate title: Dog bites man

According to this recent report (see also here) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group (Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, “The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices“), Trump’s tariffs raised consumer goods price inflation in the U.S. by [only!] 2.6%. File under “Department of Underestimation.”

 Line chart tracking the actual change in consumer prices for the goods in the authors’ sample (solid red) and the authors’ estimate of the contribution of tariffs (dashed blue) in percentage (vertical axis) from 2022 to 2026 (horizontal axis); the authors estimate that by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods’ price inflation, and without them, goods’ prices would have fallen slightly.
Amiti et al. 2026
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About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
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