Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Note: This is my eleventh blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability and its application to law. Suppose the litigation game is 90% sensitive and 90% specific, that is, suppose the process of litigation is … Continue reading →

Note: This is my tenth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability and its application to law. I will now consider four possible scenarios or types of litigation games: non-random adjudication with risk-averse or ‘virtuous’ … Continue reading →

Note: This is my ninth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability and its application to law. I am now ready to present a stylized Bayesian model of litigation. To do so, I will have … Continue reading →

Originally posted on prior probability:
Not that Holmes. This one. In our previous blog post (11/14/14), we promised to explain why our defense of Bayesian methods is relevant to law. After all, how is probability theory generally or any of the…

Note: This is my eighth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory Thus far, by way of background, I have explained how Bayesian methods help us “test” the accuracy of our judgements, I have … Continue reading →

Note: This is my seventh blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. Happy Monday, fellow Bayesians! In this blog post, I will introduce and formally define the technical concepts of ‘sensitivity’ and ‘specificity.’ In … Continue reading →

I will continue my series of Bayesian blog posts on Monday; in the meantime, check out this new “hostage chess” website. Hat tip: Brian Leiter. More details about this strategic game are available here, via Wikipedia.

Note: This is my sixth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. In this post I present the logic of my Bayesian model of litigation outcomes in algebraic terms as follows: Pr(A|B) = ([Pr(B|A)] … Continue reading →

Note: This is my fifth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. Why do I prefer Bayes over Blackstone? It was over a century ago that the great Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to … Continue reading →

Note: This is my fourth blog post in a month-long series on the basics of Bayesian probability theory. I resume by Bayesian blog series by explaining why Bayesian methods are like a meta-test, a way of testing the reliability of … Continue reading →