Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

It’s my favorite week of the spring semester. I get to stay home, ignore emails, and spend time with my family. I can also devour as many books and scholarly papers as I want. Among many other things, I am … Continue reading →

To understand the “base rate fallacy” in the Coronavirus context, compare the frequency of “media mentions” of various recent viruses (top image) with the actual number of infections (bottom image) caused by each of these viruses. See also this recent … Continue reading →

Why does politics make people so damn stupid? Shout out to Frederick M. Hess and Brendan Bell for their compelling critique of socialist statistics and progressive naiveté. Here is my favorite quote from their excellent piece: “Like data on Chinese … Continue reading →

In honor of International Women’s Day (8 March 2020), I am posting Nelson Shanks’s oil-on-canvas portrait of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Elena Kagan, Sandra Day O’Connor, and Sonia Sotomayor, the first four women to serve on the Supreme Court of the … Continue reading →

Having now finished the first half of Cheryl Misak’s intellectual biography of Frank Ramsey (“A Sheer Excess of Powers”), I am especially struck by what Ramsey (pictured below) accomplished before reaching his 19th birthday. In particular, in the space of … Continue reading →

Over a century ago, the legal giant Oliver Wendell Holmes invited us to look at the law through the lens of probability theory, or in Holmes’s own immortal words: “The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and … Continue reading →

View post on imgur.com