Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

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About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.

Review of Misak: final thoughts

My last few blog posts have reviewed Cheryl Misak’s intellectual autobiography of Frank Ramsey. Because of my own scholarly interests in Bayesian methods, my review has been devoted mostly to Ramsey’s contributions to probability theory. I now want to conclude … Continue reading

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Time out: the significance of Ramsey’s betting paradigm

In my previous post, I presented the core insight of Frank Ramsey’s “betting paradigm”: probabilities are based on beliefs, and beliefs, in turn, are like bets. I now want to take a “time out” from my extended review of Cheryl … Continue reading

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Review of Misak: beliefs are metaphorical bets

Thus far, I have presented Ramsey’s 1922 critique of Keynes’s objective theory of probability and recounted some memorable episodes from Ramsey’s personal life. I now want to move into the third and last part of Cheryl Misak’s beautiful biography of … Continue reading

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Review of Misak: Ramsey’s romantic interlude

Previously, I described Frank Ramsey’s powerful critique of John Maynard Keynes’s logical or objective approach to probability. (For the record, Ramsey published his review of Keynes’s Treatise on Probability in the January 1922 issue of Cambridge Magazine, while he was still an … Continue reading

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Review of Misak: Ramsey against the world

Part II of Cheryl Misak’s beautiful intellectual biography of Frank Ramsey is devoted to the young Ramsey’s undergraduate years at Cambridge University. (I reviewed Part I in my previous post.) If there is a common or overarching theme during these … Continue reading

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Review of Misak: Ramsey’s boyhood

I mentioned in my previous post that I would review Cheryl Misak’s intellectual biography of Frank Ramsey in three parts, beginning with Ramsey’s boyhood years. Although there is no direct evidence that Ramsey was exposed to the rigors of probability … Continue reading

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Review of Misak (2020), part 1

Among other things, Frank Ramsey (b. 1903, d. 1930) was one of the first scholars, along with Bruno de Finetti, to formalize the “logic of partial belief” or the subjective view of probability. (For this reason alone, I count Ramsey … Continue reading

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Bayesian history (Ides of March edition)

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Visualization of pi

Happy Pi Day! u/Olivesan created this 100 x 100 visualization of the first 10,000 digits of pi using the HTML5 canvas element and JavaScript. Each digit of pi is represented by the following color: 0: White 1: Red 2: Orange … Continue reading

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Another day, another illustration of the base rate fallacy (a/k/a probability neglect)?

Update (3/14): Elon Musk agrees with our analysis. As you may have heard by now, President Donald J. Trump has restricted travel between the United States and most of Europe for 30 days, while Adam Silver, the Commissioner of the … Continue reading

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