Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
“So what really happened that day …?”
Is the lone gunman theory more or less probable than Oliver Stone’s conspiracy theory?
The strategy of “nettlesomeness”
A few days ago, Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University, used the word nettlesomeness to describe Magnus Carlsen‘s chess-playing strategy during the first half of the 2013 World Chess Championship in Chennai, India between Viswanathan Anand (winner of the 2012 World … Continue reading
“We don’t stop playing because we grow old …
… we grow old because we stop playing.” –George Bernard Shaw
Suggestion box
Extra credit. Do you have any ideas or topics for future posts? Share them with prior probability in the comments section below.
The Power Point Effect
Is Power Point good or bad, on average? prior probability likes the visual and creative possibilities of Power Point, but all too often, Power Point presentations are terribly boring and poorly executed. Here, for example, is what the famous Gettysburg Address … Continue reading
Explain this …
Here is NFL referee Clete Blakeman explaning why the penalty at the end of last night’s game between the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers was not in fact a penalty: So it was determined at that point in … Continue reading
Justice Posner?
It’s remarkable that the most prolific and most cited legal scholar of the 20th century–Judge Richard A. Posner–has still not been appointed to be a Justice of the US Supreme Court … and probably never will be given his age and his caustic … Continue reading
*Mincome*
Why don’t governments just give poor people cash with no strings attached–a minimum income or mincome–instead of in-kind benefits such as food stamps and housing vouchers? True, some recipients would choose not to engage in productive work, spending their time … Continue reading
Why don’t we get rid of *time-outs* in sports?
One of the things prior probability likes about soccer is the simplicity of its rules–there are just 17 simple rules in soccer (*)–and especially the fact that there are no “time-outs” and thus no manipulation of the game clock in the … Continue reading

