Category Archives: Uncategorized

The sin of self-serving bias

Review of Chapter 3 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke As we saw in my previous post, Chapter 2 of “Thinking in Bets” is devoted to the problem of motivated reasoning. Next, Chapter 3 explores another form of mental … Continue reading

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Beliefs, bets, and Bayes

Review of Chapter 2 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke Chapter 2 of Annie Duke’s beautiful book contains so many powerful ideas that I cannot do it justice in a short blog post, but I will nevertheless try. Among … Continue reading

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Why life is like poker

Review of Chapter 1 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke Chapter 1 of “Thinking in Bets” concludes with this pithy phrase: “… you’ve been betting all along.” These five words not only capture one of Annie Duke’s main ideas; … Continue reading

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PSA (coronavirus edition)

Originally posted on prior probability:
Hey, where is my mask? In the mail? If the Mayor of Los Angeles is going to make the wearing of masks compulsory (see here), then shouldn’t City Hall provide masks to anyone who needs…

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Quarantine readings

Below is a small subset of the best books, essays, and online courses that I have been reading or watching during this quarantine period: 1. “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke (Portfolio/Penguin, 2019), available here via Amazon. Suffice it to … Continue reading

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Random group generator?

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How to lie with statistics (coronavirus edition)

As you may have heard by now, there are more cases of coronavirus in the USA than anywhere else in the world. But with apologies to the late Darrell Huff, most coronavirus tables and charts I have seen thus far … Continue reading

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The Immortal John Horton Conway

John Conway (pictured below) is one of my mathematical heroes, along with Martin Gardner and John Nash. Among other things, Conway invented a simple zero-player game called “The Game of Life,” for which he will always be remembered by generations … Continue reading

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PSA (coronavirus edition)

Updated 4/16: Hey, where is my mask? In the mail? If the Mayor of Los Angeles or the Governor of New York is going to make the wearing of masks compulsory (see here and here), then shouldn’t City Hall or … Continue reading

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Resurrection

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