Category Archives: Uncategorized

Note (1/4): This post has been significantly revised. In our previous post, we used Bayesian reasoning to revise or “update” our forecast about the possible outcomes in Gamble v. United States, a case that was heard by the Supreme Court … Continue reading →

Note (1/4): This post has been significantly revised. In our previous post, we painstakingly estimated the base rate or the historical frequency in which a precedent is overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in those cases … Continue reading →

Note (1/4): The second half of this post has been significantly revised. We have been highlighting some of the main ideas contained in Tetlock and Gardner’s 2015 “superforecasting” book in our previous two blog posts. Yesterday, for example, I presented … Continue reading →

In our previous post, we summarized some of the main ideas we stole from Tetlock and Gardner’s fascinating book on “superforecasting.” Their book is really useful because it is a kind of “how to” manual for Bayesian thinking. In fact, … Continue reading →

That is my favorite quote from “Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, which I finally got around to reading during this Christmas holiday. Along with Sharon McGrayne’s 2012 book “The theory that would … Continue reading →

This video shows how the musician Calvin Harris created his lovely song “Slide”. What will you create in the new year?

Latin Americans like to celebrate Christmas Eve (Nochebuena) with their family and closest friends. That’s why 24 December is my favorite holiday tradition and my favorite day of the year.

It’s time to size up what we have been working on during this past year. In addition to my regular teaching duties, I worked on the following research projects: 1. Along with my colleagues Sean Melvin (Elizabethtown College) and David … Continue reading →

Check out these beautiful mathematical pudding bowls. Each bowl contains the proof of a theorem, such as Gauss’s proof by induction. The proof is in the pudding bowls! (You can order a set of four bowls here. Hat tip: Cliff … Continue reading →