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Model this: nice guys finish last?
The Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma, one of the most important models in game theory, predicts that business firms that screw their customers should fail, not succeed. But check out this recent report in Bloomberg Businessweek: The most hated airline is also the … Continue reading
The Coase Theorem and the Game of Chicken
Note: this post was revised and updated on 13 April 2014. There are only two parties to this particular dispute, a public agency and a private cattle rancher (thus so-called “transaction costs” are low), so what’s preventing them from negotiating a … Continue reading
A hypothetical question
The LBJ Presidential Library in Austin, Texas recently convened a Civil Rights Summit to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964. Yet no one at the summit raised the most obvious question: is the old Civil Rights Act still … Continue reading
Sumner on Cowen on Silver on Aaron
Scott Sumner just wrote up a thoughtful analysis of Tyler Cowen’s reply to Nate Silver’s counter-factual thought-experiment about baseball. But we here at prior probability are not so much interested in the original question of Nate Silver’s post (“If Hank Aaron had never hit a home run, … Continue reading
Do fake prediction markets work?
There’s a new information quasi-market called SciCast based on “crowd sourcing” methods and reputation effects, not on prices–i.e. participants who make the most accurate predictions move up a symbolic scoreboard but are not paid with real money. You could argue that one well-designed quasi-market is … Continue reading
Should politicians be legally liable for making false campaign promises?
To be more precise, should the tort of fraudulent misrepresentation apply to promises made by politicians running for office? (Put another way, why are most claims of fraud or deceit limited to commercial cases?) One reason politicians are generally not liable … Continue reading
Is SeaWorld guilty of false imprisonment?
Right now a controversial piece of draft legislation, Assembly Bill 2140, is pending before the Water, Parks, and Wildlife Committee of the California State Assembly. This bill would require SeaWorld San Diego to stop using killer whales in its iconic marine shows and to … Continue reading
Acts of love …
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush got it right … calling for compassion for illegal immigrants and recognizing that most undocumented workers come to the US to provide for their families: “Yes, they broke the law,” Mr Bush told a reporter, “but it’s not a … Continue reading
Shouldn’t Smith & Wesson and the maker of Ambien be legally liable for the recent Fort Hood massacre?
Many reports indicate that the gunman, Ivan Lopez, had been prescribed the drug Ambien when he killed four men (including himself) and injured 16 others on 3 April 2014 with his .45-caliber Smith & Wesson pistol. This senseless massacre of innocent people raises … Continue reading
What % of basketball and football games are fixed?
The fraction or number of such games has to be greater than zero, but how much greater? By way of example, do you detect any suspicious patterns or red flags in this box score of the Huskies’s 63-53 Final Four upset victory over the Gators yesterday … Continue reading
