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Is the “rule of law” dead?
Secret courts … Secret “kill lists” … Secret drone missions … An intellectually-honest jurist has to ask, what has happened to the rule of law? prior probability also asks, what is the probability that these secret (and illegal?) tactics will reduce … Continue reading
Royal probabilities
Before the birth of a baby boy today to Kate & William, the probability that the baby would in fact be a boy was 1/2, but what is the probability that the boy’s grandfather, Prince Charles, will ever ascend the … Continue reading
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Tagged bets, Prediction Markets, Prince Charles, Probability, Robin Hanson
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Bets & taxes
“Are gamblers required to pay taxes on every winning bet – for example, every winning pull of the slot machine? Or can they report the overall income – gains minus losses – from a session of gambling?” This is the … Continue reading
The law of fantasy sports
prior probability‘s former colleague Marc Edelman, one of the top scholars in the emerging area of sports law, has written a short treatise on fantasy sports and the law. (Check out his twitter too.) Here is part of his abstract: “America is … Continue reading
Can an amendment to the Constitution be unconstitutional?
prior probability would rephrase the above question this way: what is the probability that a court will declare an amendment to the constitution unconstitutional? We often assume that all the provisions within a country’s constitution are internally consistent. But is … Continue reading
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Tagged Constitutional Amendments, International Law, Natural Law, Yaniv Roznai
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Tyler Cowen asks, “How big is your chance of dying in an ordinary day?”
See Tyler’s post here or read “The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers about Danger” to find out. FYI, Tyler includes this quote from the book: “A Micromort can also be compared to a form of imaginary Russian roulette in which … Continue reading
What do you think of the new Rolling Stone cover?
Here is a more interesting question: is your reaction based on moral grounds, emotions, aesthetic considerations, or something else? In addition, we would ask, what is the probability that this provocative cover will increase (or decrease) the sales of Rolling Stone … Continue reading
Landsburg’s “Bayesian Riddle”
Economist Steven Landsburg recently posed the following Bayesian riddle here. A murder has been committed. The suspects are: Bob, a male smoker. Carol, a female smoker. Ted, another male smoker. Alice, a female non-smoker. You are quite sure that one … Continue reading
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Time travel thought experiment
If you could go back in time and share one piece of scientific knowledge from today, what time period would you choose, what would you share, and how might that information change the course of history? I am a big … Continue reading
