prior probability

My colleagues Daniel Klein, Nicholas Swanson, and Jeffrey Young provide their interpretation of Adam Smith’s imaginary being in their essay “The Impartial Spectator Rises” in the most recent issue of Econ Journal Watch (see here or below). As it happens, scholars are still divided about how to interpret the ideal observer/impartial spectator in Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments (see, e.g., pp. 60-64 of my forthcoming survey of Adam Smith problems with Salim Rashid), so Klein, Swanson, and Young’s new paper is a must-read for me. Suffice it to say I will scrutinize their paper and report back soon; in the meantime, file under: yet another “Adam Smith problem“.

All I will say (for now) is that the incumbent FBI director, Kash Patel, better be careful, as his political enemies may want retribution when they resume control of the White House in the future. In the meantime, here is the two-count indictment, and here is Professor Jonathan Turley’s expert analysis of the charges against Comey. File under: “political payback” or “no one is above the law”?

I hate to have to defend such an unlikable CEO as Mark Zuckerberg, but what’s also funny about this anti-Meta meme are its logical and legal fallacies. Can you spot them?

In addition to my usual fare of scholarly papers and erudite essays, below are some of the books that I am reading (or in the case of item #4, re-reading) this fall:

1. Neil Gaiman, Norse Mythology (W. W. Norton, 2017)
2. Amartya Sen, Home in the World: A Memoir (Allen Lane, 2021)
3. Leo Strauss & Joseph Cropsey (editors), History of Political Philosophy, 3rd ed. (Chicago, 1987)
4. William Strunk & E. B. White, The Elements of Style, 4th ed. (Pearson, 2000)

Delete your academia.edu accounts, if you have not done so already. Here’s why. See also the screenshot of their super-scammy updated user agreement below:

1. Julie Bort, OpenAI’s research on AI models deliberately lying is wild, Tech Crunch (18 September 2025).
2. Nils Köbis, et al., Delegation to artificial intelligence can increase dishonest behaviour, Nature (17 September 2025).
3. u/MinuteDistribution31, Why ChatGPT isn’t a good tool for education?, Reddit (21 September 2025).

Bonus link: ChatGPT is eating the world

1. What is the real reason he resigned from his post after only 17 months? Was he forced out?
2. Why is this motherfucker still being paid $1 million dollars a year?

Is Al a scam, a potential genocidal maniac, a wizard with magical powers, or just meh? (See below.) What is your take on Al?

1. A.I. as scam. See Emily Bender and Alex Hanna, The AI con (Teaching in Higher Ed podcast, 26 June 2025): Bender and Hanna explain why A.I. in education simply leads to the perfunctory performance of educational tasks without the fulfillment of their original purpose: learning.
2. A.I. as magic. See Ethan Mollick, On working with wizards (Substack, 11 Sept. 2025): Mollick explains why the best A.I. models are now indistinguishable from magic.
3. A.I. as meh. See David Wallace-Wells, A.I. may be just kind of ordinary (N.Y. Times, 20 Aug. 2025): Wallace-Wells explains why A.I. is more like electricity or the Internet, once-revolutionary technologies that are now normal and taken for granted.
4. A.I. as genocidal maniac. See Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, Can we survive A.I.? (Sam Harris podcast, 16 Sept. 2025): Yudkowsky and Soares explain why A.I. will destroy the world.