prior probability

In brief, I began blogging here on 5 July 2013–i.e, nine years and 11 months ago to the day–and to commemorate this occasion, I will from time to time in the next four weeks be reposting some of my favorite blog posts from the last ten years. To get the ball rolling, pictured below is a screenshot of my very first blog post, which features a photograph I took of some bridges, trees, and buildings in one of my favorite cities in the world. Notice too how that post contains only seven words, including the title. Although most blogs consist mostly of words (mine included), one of my goals when I started “Prior Probability” was to convey information and ideas via pictures, charts, and other types of images.

I was finally able to watch Steven Speilberg’s auto-biographical film “The Fabelmans” on my return flight to Orlando. Although this two-and-1/2 hour movie is way too long, I can’t wait for the sequel! “The Fabelmans” walks us through Speilberg’s childhood and adolescence up to his young adult years, and I was spellbound by every scene. Today, with the popularity of YouTube, TikTok, and other video platforms, I wonder who the next Speilberg will be.

I have enjoyed my trip to Santiago de Chile on many levels–especially her people, food, and culture–and if all goes well I will be returning here next year to attend the annual meeting of the History of Economics Society, which I have been told is scheduled to take place at the Universidad de Desarrollo in July of 2024. (When I return to South America in July of next year, I hope to bring my family and stay much longer in order to visit the enigmatic ruins of Easter Island as well as go stargazing on the desolate plains of the Atacama Desert, among other things.) Now, however, I will be returning to Orlando, Florida this weekend in order to fly out to Scotland on the afternoon of Monday, June 5, where I will be presenting my scholarly research on Adam Smith’s life and ideas at the University of Glasgow on June 8 as part of the celebration of the philosopher-economist’s 300^th birthday. In the meantime, if you are as fascinated by the great Adam Smith as I am, some of my Smithian studies are available here (Adam Smith in Love), here (Adam Smith and the Balliol College Conspiracy), and here (Die Adam Smith Probleme).

In addition to visiting a plethora of wonderful bookstores, I walked to Barrio Bella Vista from my hotel in the historic city center and rode the funicular railway to the highest point in Santiago de Chile: Cerro San Cristóbal.

She was not only my first Spanish instructor at UC Santa Barbara (I enrolled in two of her Intermediate Spanish classes during my freshman year in college); she also introduced me to the literary works of Jorge Luis Borges, Gabriela Mistral, and Pablo Neruda. In a word, Dr Ascarrunz de Gilman changed my intellectual life forever; because of her, I decided to major in Spanish literature in order to read more of these great Latin American authors! Also, I still remember how one day she showed the class a picture of a fountain in Santiago de Chile featuring Neptune, the Roman god of freshwater and the sea. (For a history of this fountain in Spanish, see here.) Now, many years later, I finally had the opportunity to visit this landlocked Neptune. Gracias Graciela …

Translation: Faces of Santiago, Chile

I am a huge fan of tango music, so I was super-lucky to see the Argentine tango orquestra Astillero perform live at the Teatro Nescafé de las Artes in Santiago on Sunday, May 29, their first-ever performance in Chile. Below is one of their compositions:

I am interrupting my series of Chilean blog posts to mark Memorial Day, a federal holiday in the USA to mourn and honor the men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces who died while serving their country. But what about civilian deaths? This headline from 2017 caught my attention (see below); full report here:

“More Americans killed by guns since 1968 than in all U.S. wars — combined“

Hola! I am attending a workshop on Adam Smith for young Latin American scholars, and my favorite paper by far was one on “The Meanings of the Word ‘Trade'” by Leonardo André Paes Müller. His paper brought back memories of my favorite paper at the Adam Smith conference in Madison, Wisconsin in 2021: Sarah Skwire’s paper “As If: Clueless about the Invisible Hand.” (See here and here.) Below are two slides from Paes Müller’s talk: