prior probability

The full thread is available here, via Damon Jones (@nomadj1s); hat tip: Alex Tabarrok.

That is the title that I would give this upended map of the Mediterranean basin, which was made by artist Sabine Réthoré. (Hat tip: u/JulienPaniac.)

I have been attending the annual meeting of the Southeastern Association of Law Schools (SEALS) this past week on Amelia Island. In addition to the lovely location and in-depth discussions about many different areas of law (this morning, for example, I attended an excellent panel on insider trading law), one of the things I love about SEALS is how family friendly the conference is.

Every academic conference ever!

According to this recent report by Susan Adams (via Forbes), more and more college students are using Chegg and other similar “study” platforms to cheat on their online exams and assignments. Starting next month, I will begin a new series on “the law and ethics of Chegg” and make the case that Chegg should be criminally charged with wire fraud and with conspiracy to commit wire fraud. In the meantime, however, I will remain offline while my family and I take a well-deserved beach vacation …

Alternative Title: Welcome to Central Florida!

I described in my previous post the circumstances surrounding my decision to relocate to Central Florida. Although this decision was a difficult and painful one, it turned out to be the right call in my case. To the point, I was able to turn things around in short order and get my professional and private lives back on track:

1. Teaching. Although I had to start my academic career from scratch, I resumed my teaching duties at the business college of a reputable public research university, and as an added bonus, my salary went from x to 2x, and I have made many new scholarly friends.
2. Research. My “Bayesian conversion” occurred in Central Florida, and I have written my most important work since re-locating here, including my 2014 paper “Gödel’s Loophole,” which has been downloaded over 7,000 times and now has its own Wikipedia page! (See here.)
3. Private Life. My children ended up relocating to Central Florida as well and excelling in school. Moreover, I eventually met the love of my life, and we have been happily (for the most part!) married since 2012.

I most certainly have a lot more to say, both good and bad, about my post-Puerto Rico life in Central Florida and about each one of these categories, and I will do so in a second series of reflections in the near future …

Alternative Title: “Paradise Lost”

The champion heavy-weight boxer Mike Tyson is reported to have once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” In my case, this quote could not be more apt. Although I loved living in Puerto Rico and had already garnered many academic laurels (promotion to associate professor and tenure in 2004, appointment as a Ronald Coase Fellow in 2005, my first external grant and overseas publication in 2006, and my first invitation to teach in the United States in 2008), my world was starting to unravel. By the spring of 2009, I had suffered several metaphorical gut punches in my professional and private life. Alas, some of these wounds were self-inflicted.

1. Coup d’Etat at the PUCPR Law School. In a turn of events that took me by surprise, my benefactor Charles Cuprill-Oppenheimer, the venerable dean of the PUCPR law school, was abruptly forced to retire and replaced with a new dean from out of nowhere. I know about this sordid academic affair first-hand because I was on the official search committee, and our committee had voted unanimously to reappoint Dean Cuprill-Oppenheimer to an unprecedented fourth term. Without any notice, however, the president of the university unilaterally appointed one of his own cronies to the deanship, and once this new dean was installed, the vipers on the faculty came out of the woodwork. This faction forced out my best friend Orlando I. Martinez Garcia (the new dean decided to not renew his contract) and voted to kill my survey course on the Evolution and Development of the Institutions of the Civil Law. Although I had tenure, the knives were out; the handwriting was on the wall.
2. The End of an Affair. The most painful chapter of my life, however, was in large part the result of my own bad behavior. I was in a toxic relationship with a woman who did not love me, but she was the mother of my children, two beautiful children that I loved more than anything in the world. I had used up my life savings to buy a home on Calle Las Palomas, just off the hustle and bustle of Calle Loiza in Santurce, walking distance to my children’s school (Academia San Jorge), and two blocks from my favorite beach, Ocean Park. But I was unfaithful, and instead of Christian forgiveness, I was condemned to the worst kind of Hell on Earth. The mother of my children kicked me out of the Las Palomas house and kept me from seeing my children.

In short, I had been punched in the mouth–twice over. So, with the sudden coup d’etat at the university and my family life obliterated, I decided to cut my losses, leave the island, and start over …

I will resume my reflections in my next post, but in the meantime, I just figured out why I hate driving on Florida roads so much. According to this report in the Daily Mail (hat tip: the Amazing Tyler Cowen), many popular trucks and SUVs are larger than WWII tanks!