prior probability

… is this quote by Pierre-Simon Laplace:

“The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability.” Théorie Analytique des Probabilités (1812).

For your visual reference, a portrait of the great Laplace appears below:

Via Wikipedia (with boldtype and html links in the original): “The Round City of Baghdad is the original core of Baghdad, built by the Abbasid Caliph al-Mansur in 762–766 CE as the official residence of the Abbasid court. Its official name in Abbasid times was The City of Peace (Arabic: مدينة السلام‎ ; romanized: Madīnat as-Salām). The famous library known as the House of Wisdom was located within its grounds.” More details about this splendid lost city are available here.

With apologies to Deborah Mayo (@learnfromerror), this is what happens when you combine Twitter with a bout of insomnia: a tweet at 3:51 AM! In any case, here is the entire thread for your reference …

Check out this explanation of Boxing Day by Jonathan Thompson. For my part, I like to think of Boxing Day as a “Reverse Nochebuena” because in Latin America we celebrate the Christmas holiday with a big extended family dinner on the 24th instead of the 26th.