prior probability

Tonight is “la noche de San Juan”, one of the quirky traditions that I miss the most about the Island of Puerto Rico, where I lived from 1993 to 2009. On June 23, “sanjuaneros” (people who live in the San Juan metro area) of all ages will head to the beach after work, hang out with their family and friends, and at the stroke of midnight take at least three backward plunges to symbolically mark a new beginning. Feliz Noche de San Juan to all my family and friends, wherever in the world you are!

Updated and expanded (4:00pm): Instead of relying on public opinion polls, which were notoriously unreliable last time around and which–as you yourself ended up conceding–caused you to screw up big time, why not use a proxy–such as online sales of campaign masks–in order to measure public support of the presidential candidates? One of the problems with polls is that “people lie”! Also, polls don’t measure one’s likelihood of actually voting on election day. By contrast, one of the advantages of this particular proxy (online sales of campaign masks), is that if you are willing to purchase (let alone wear in public) a Biden or Trump mask, then you are probably more likely to actually go out and vote.

Chalk up another victory for markets and free enterprise! The polemical Nassim Nicholas Taleb (or NNT of “Black Swan” fame) recently wrote up and posted this excellent essay identifying six errors in reasoning about face masks. Among the usual suspects are “paternalistic bureaucrats” and Ivy League-educated public-health experts, both of whom at first implored the general public to NOT use masks–yeah, the same nitwits who are now making unprincipled exceptions based on your politics. As NNT explains, these bureaucrats and experts lied to us (NNT’s words, not mine) because they failed to see the power of people to respond to incentives, or in the eloquent words of NNT: “they did not get the inventiveness and industriousness of people who do not need a government to produce masks for them: they can rapidly convert about anything into well-functioning protective face covering appendages, say rags into which one can stitch coffee filters…. Nor did bureaucrats heed the notion of markets and the existence of opportunists who can supply people with what they want.” Also, via Marginal Revolution, here is another spectacular example of government failure.

Photo credit: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

The beautiful jigsaw puzzles featured in the video below are inspired by the formation of agates, a colorful banded stone, and are available for purchase here. Each particular puzzle is unique, emerging from a computer simulation designed to create random variations in the overall shape and in the individual pieces of each puzzle. Hat tip: @pickover.

Via SSRN, I have posted my review of Tyler Cowen’s beautiful love letter to big business here. The abstract of my review is below:

“In 1848, two obscure German philosophers, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, published a revolutionary pamphlet called ‘The Manifesto of the Communist Party.’ The Communist Manifesto, destined to become one of the most influential works of political philosophy of all time, began with these famous words: ‘A spectre is haunting Europe–the spectre of communism….’ Now, almost two centuries later, someone has finally chased down this haunting and seductive spectre and attempted to bottle her up for good. That someone is Tyler Cowen. In brief, Cowen has just published a kind of ‘Capitalist Manifesto,’ one that is even more intoxicating and liberating than Marx and Engel’s original screed. Far from the source of all things evil, Cowen explains why big business should be praised.”

In addition to green, various shades of grey, yellow, and blue are also quite popular! As a token of my appreciation, I am bringing this beautiful “visual guide to banknotes around the world” by Salman Haqqi to your attention. Among other things, this compendious report contains a visualization of 157 national currencies–from the Afghan Afghani to the Zambian Kwacha–featuring the dominant color of each currency’s £20 banknote or its equivalent. Below is a fragment from Mr Haqqi’s comprehensive compendium of colors:

In addition, check out the following excerpts from Mr Haqqi’s beautiful report, summarizing his findings:

Our analysis revealed the most common colour used on banknotes is in fact green, with currencies including the aforementioned US Dollar, as well as the Swedish Krona and Uruguayan Peso all featuring various shades.

When it comes to the famous people featured on banknotes, their occupations vary greatly depending on the currency and value of note they appear on. However, our analysis of 1,383 banknotes featuring a person revealed 547 political figures, 320 royals and 153 writers. (Perhaps unsurprisingly, Queen Elizabeth II is the most popular figure on banknotes, having featured on 45 different note designs across 11 countries.)

Kudos to Mr Haqqi and his staff. (Hat tip: The Amazing Tyler Cowen.)

Via Arnold Kling: “From a liberty-coercion perspective, [the slogan ‘defund the police’ is] a misdirected effort. Excess coercion comes from unnecessary laws and unaccountable enforcement. For libertarians, reform would start with having fewer laws. Those who enforce the laws should be accountable for acting within the law themselves.” I could not agree more!

What is “Juneteenth”? Via Kottke, here is a helpful introduction. According to Wikipedia, citing this excellent essay by Henry Louis Gates, Jr., Juneteenth originally began as an unofficial commemoration of a military order (issued on 19 June 1865 by Union General Gordon Granger) proclaiming that all enslaved persons in the State of Texas were now free. In other words, Juneteenth could also be called Freedom Day! Whatever its origins, let’s make Juneteenth a national holiday. (Postscript: My colleague and friend Alex Tabarrok agrees! For my part, I would be more than happy to give up Labor Day or Columbus Day in exchange for Freedom Day!)