prior probability

Can we all just get along? If not, why place all of your impeachment eggs in a Ukranian basket (so to speak)? More to the point, why not impeach President Trump for tax evasion instead? Ukraine is a corrupt country anyways, and worse yet, it appears the so-called “hearsay whistleblower” may have been politically motivated (you think?!), but tax fraud is a felony. (See 26 U.S. Code § 7201; look it up!) Moreover, unlike the partial transcript of the disputed July 25 phone call to the President of Ukraine, which the White House has released for all to see, Mr. Trump has refused to release any of his tax returns, thus creating a rebuttable presumption that he has at some point in his life committed tax fraud. Right?

Now that we have observed Halloween and All Saints Day, check out this beautiful and interactive collection of metro logos from around the world. (Alas, the logos for Orlando’s budding “SunRail” system or San Juan, Puerto Rico’s “Tren Urbano” are not included in this fairly comprehensive collection of metro logos.) Which one do you like the best? Least? Hat tip: @kottke.

According to this report in The Washington Post, smugglers in Mexico have repeatedly sawed through new sections of President Trump’s border wall by using commercially available power tools, opening gaps large enough for people and drug loads to pass through. Here is an excerpt:

“The breaches have been made using a popular cordless household tool known as a reciprocating saw that retails at hardware stores for as little as $100. When fitted with specialized blades, the saws can slice through one of the barrier’s steel-and-concrete bollards in a matter of minutes, according to [Border Patrol] agents, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the barrier-defeating techniques. After cutting through the base of a single bollard, smugglers can push the steel out of the way, allowing an adult to fit through the gap. Because the bollards are so tall — and are attached only to a panel at the very top — their length makes them easier to push aside once they have been cut and are left dangling, according to engineers consulted by The Washington Post.”

Casablanca, meet The Killers! The original Blade Runner movie (circa 1982), one of my all-time favorite films, was set in November 2019. (Shout out to my colleague and friend Daniel Nina for introducing me to this classic film so many years ago.) Enjoy!

Why do the wealthy get so many breaks from criminal prosecution? The only persons charged in the murder of law professor Dan Markel are two Hispanics and an Asian woman (pictured on the bottom row below), but according to this report in the Tallahasee Democrat:

“Prosecutors say Markel was killed as part of a murder-for-hire plot orchestrated by the family of his ex-wife Wendi Adelson. Her brother and mother, Charlie and Donna Adelson, have been implicated but not arrested in connection with the Florida State law professor’s broad daylight shooting in his Trescott Drive garage. Markel was found on July 18, 2014, with two gunshot wounds to the head and died the next day.”

What if humans were allowed to sell their blood to vampires? Would vampire slayers become extinct? I consider those questions and more in my 2014 essay “Buy or Bite?” and in this Freakonomics Radio podcast. (Here is a full list of vampire movies and TV series on Netflix, but to my knowledge, none of these pop culture classics explore vampire markets or the legalization of blood sales.)

“Do you want to be known for your writing, or for your swift email responses?” Whether you are a busy student or full-fledged academic, a start-up entrepreneur or the CEO of a Fortune 500 firm, it is essential to “just say no” to daily distractions like TV, social media, email, and other time-sucking activities. (Or at least cut down on these soul-destroying time thieves.) Or in the words of the late great Steve Jobs: “People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve got to focus on. But that’s not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I’m actually as proud of the things we haven’t done as the things I have done. Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things.” Additional thoughts on the virtues of saying “no” are available here.

If so, which one? Early Wittgenstein or Late Wittgenstein or both! Two philosophers discuss these questions here, while the main case against both Wittgensteins is presented in summary fashion here. (Here is one morsel: “Wittgenstein’s reputation for genius did not depend on [his] incomprehensibility alone.”) On another note, below is a picture of Wittgenstein’s remote cabin in Norway (via Cabin Porn), where the great philosopher would spend his sabbaticals alone thinking important thoughts. Double hat tip: Brian Leiter.

Photo credit: Jon Bolstad