Elections are a public good

When we think of “public goods,” we often think of such things as roads, water works, and other public projects. But perhaps the most important public good are clean, non-fraudulent elections, since the legitimacy of our political system depends in large part on the integrity of the method in which our representatives are elected.

On this note, Angel Gonzalez Roman, the Dean at the Law School of the Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico, where prior probability used to teach (1998 to 2009), has just been confirmed as the new Chairman of the Puerto Rico State Elections Commission (or Comision Estatal de Elecciones, as it is known on the Island). In our view, he is now the most important public official in Puerto Rico, since the P.R. State Elections Commission is responsible for the integrity and fairness of the electoral process in Puerto Rico and it has thus far done an excellent job of maintaining clean and free elections on the Island. Although Puerto Rico has many social problems, including a high crime rate and abysmal public education system, in the spirit of Albert O. Hirschman, we wish to emphasize the positive in this post: the fact that Puerto Rico has had free and fair elections with minimal levels of fraud for several decades, a scarce public good in most developing countries …

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Is David Miranda a terrorist?

David Miranda has only two degrees of separation between himself and Edward Snowden, since he is the lover of Glenn Greenwald, who in turn is the journalist who revealed Snowden’s secrets.

According to The Guardian, Mr Miranda was detained and questioned by security officials at London Heathrow Airport under Schedule 7 of the UK Terrorism Act. These security officials (most likely at the behest of the US government, though they deny this) then held Mr Miranda incommunicado for almost nine hours and confiscated (i.e. stole) his mobile phone, laptop computer, camera, and memory sticks. So much for the rule of law.

In the words of Nick Cohen, a columnist for the conservative weekly The Spectator: “The next time [the authorities] try to tell you that the secrecy and attempts to silence legitimate debate are ‘in the public interest,’ do not forget what they did to David Miranda, because they can do it to you, too.” Remember these apt words the next time you wait in line at an airport security checkpoint.

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Mark Zuckerburg is a douche

Facebook has very Coasian bounty program for security researchers (i.e. hackers) who find bugs and other “vulnerabilities” on Facebook: it pays people a minimum of $500 USD to report such bugs to Facebook instead of using them or selling them on the black market. But when Khalil Shreateh, a security researcher from Palestine, found a major flaw in Facebook (a bug that let him post stuff to other people’s Walls) and reported it to Facebook (twice), he was completely ignored by Facebook.

Because he was ignored, Mr Shreateh then used the newly-discovered bug to post a message directly to Mark Zuckerburg‘s Wall. In response, Mr Zuckerburg not only suspended Mr Shreateh’s Facebook account; Zuckerburg also refused to pay him the bounty on the pretext that Mr Shreateh violated Facebook’s terms of service.

Come on, Zuck, give the man his bounty. He earned it.

Facebook flaw -- Zuckerberg wall post

(Here is one version of this story, and for you geeks, here is Mr Shreateh’s technical explanation of the bug he discovered.)

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Detail from The Temptation of St. Anthony

prior probability is reblogging this detail from “The Temptation of St. Anthony” by Hieronymus Bosch to remind ourselves about the importance of imagination and that literature and the arts often have more to say about the human condition than science does

Biblioklept's avatarBiblioklept

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Mickey Mouse Bets

Via the Volokh Conspiracy (perhaps the best academic blog on matter of legal theory), prior probability overheard the following proposition from Prof. Glynn Lunney:

“Anyone interested in starting a pool on whether Congress extends copyright for another 20 years by 2018? Or will the Mickey Mouse of Steamboat Willie actually fall out of copyright, though not necessarily into the public domain?”

So, would you take this bet?

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Who benefits when state secrets are revealed?

According to Glenn Greenwald, the journalist who revealed Snowden’s secrets, it’s you. Here is the essence of Mr Greenwald’s argument:

“Please just spend a moment considering the options available to someone with access to numerous Top Secret documents. * * * [i] They could easily enrich themselves by selling those documents for huge sums of money to foreign intelligence services. [ii] They could seek to harm the US government by acting at the direction of a foreign adversary and covertly pass those secrets to them. [iii] They could gratuitously expose the identity of covert agents. * * * None of the whistleblowers persecuted by the Obama administration as part of its unprecedented attack on whistleblowers [such as Private Manning or Edward Snowden] has done any of that: not one of them. * * * They did not act with any self-interest in mind. The opposite is true: they undertook great personal risk and sacrifice for one overarching reason: to make their fellow citizens aware of what their government is doing in the dark.”

prior probability asks, is this just an ex post justification of Snowden and Manning’s disclosures, or does Mr Greenwald have a point?

Hat Tip: Dave Tufte at voluntaryXchange

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The woman who helped Snowden

Her name is Laura Poitras …

… and her remarkable story is here.

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Advice for academics …

… Ask questions that matter.

These words of wisdom are Robin Hanson‘s. Hanson, an academic entrepreneur, promoter of prediction markets, and thoughtful blogger (his excellent blog is called Overcoming Bias), also has this to say: “I … know lots of academics, and they all have one or more research topics. And if you ask them they can usually phrase these topics in terms of questions they want to answer. And this is a big part of what makes academics more intellectually productive. But alas, few academics are able to articulate in much detail why it is important to the world that their questions get answered. * * * They seem to think it is someone else’s job to decide what questions are important. Unfortunately, most academic journal articles are answering pretty uninteresting questions.”

prior probability asks, why are there so many academic journals devoted to so many “uninteresting questions” (to borrow Hanson’s phrase). Also, what metric should we use to decide whether a question is “interesting” or not?

en.wikipedia.org

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Is the “Justice for Trayvon” movement finished?

It sure looks that way to prior probability. The mainstream news media, for example, are reporting that a 31-day student “sit-in” in Tallahassee, Fla. (the State capital) to protest the State of Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” self-defense law has come to an end … without accomplishing any concrete objective. The Florida State Legislature won’t  repeal, amend, or even consider holding a hearing on this law.

So, what is the probability that this was the last chapter in the “Justice for Trayvon” movement?

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Is it time for a new Constitutional Convention?

Mark Levin, a lawyer, a former bureaucrat (*), and a conservative commentator, who has just published an intriguing book called The Liberty Amendments: Restoring the American Republic, says “yes.” In short, he calls for a new Constitutional Convention to “turn back the clock” (to 1787, we presume?) by curbing the federal government and returning power to the States. Other countries that have recently revised their constitutions (for better or worse?) are Egypt, Tunisia, and Venezuela. So, prior probability asks, Is Levin’s call for a new Constitutional Convention a dangerous ploy or a sensible proposal? If, for the sake of argument, we were to call a new convention, who would get to attend its proceedings and what voting rules would apply? Majority rule, or a 2/3, 3/5, or some other super-majority rule? Unfortunately, Levin hasn’t really thought through these important procedural questions.

(*) According to Wikipedia, Mark Levin was chief of staff to Attorney General Ed Meese in the 1980s.

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