prior probability

For some unknown algorithmic reason, a strange essay published in The Atlantic in 2022 kept popping up in my Twitter feed this weekend. This obscure essay, which is titled “Why do rich people love quiet?“, immediately brought back memories of my torts professor and mentor Guido Calabresi, who changed my intellectual life forever. Among other things, Guido — to this day, he prefers to be called by his Christian name — introduced me to the works of Ronald Coase and taught me a disturbing Coasean/Calabresian insight: most conflicts, including disputes about noise, are almost always “reciprocal” problems, i.e. both the “victim” and “wrongdoer” are often jointly responsible for whatever harm has befallen one of the parties. To this end, I can still remember one of the cases Guido assigned, Sturges v. Bridgman or what I now call “the case of the noisy confectioner”, and his unorthodox discussion of the reciprocal conflict between the silence-loving doctor and noise-making confectioner in that classic case. More generally, Guido asked us, what legal or moral rights should men of contemplation (like the doctor in Sturges v. Bridgman) have vis-a-vis “doers” or men of action (like the noisy confectioner)?

After attending the Manifest festival at Berkeley on June 7-9, where I met and befriended the founders of the Manifold prediction-market platform, I posted my first betting-market on their user-friendly website a few days ago; see here or tweet below:

My goal is to post a new question every other Monday; in the meantime, I will have more to say about Manifold and will respond to this powerful critique of prediction markets sometime next week.

Performed by Ruslana Semeniuk (voice), Wesley Somers (baroque guitar and voice), and Avery Grethe (steel string guitar) at the Spring Chamber Music Concert, Recital Hall, UC Santa Cruz (4 June 2024).

Bonus link: a TikTok video of Anthony Bourdain’s 2002 visit to French Laundry.

Shout out to my colleague and friend Brian L. Frye, who offered to ghostwrite my next law review article!

One of my favorite Milton Friedman anecdotes is the following story in which Professor Friedman, while traveling somewhere overseas, reportedly spotted scores of road builders moving earth with basic shovels instead of modern machinery. When he asked why heavy tractors weren’t being used instead of mere shovels, his host told him that it was to keep the employment rate high: if the workers used tractors, fewer people would have jobs. “Then instead of shovels, why don’t you give them spoons and create even more jobs?”, Friedman inquired. But did this exchange really happen? See link below …

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankenstein

I joined the virtual #HotFrankSummer reading group last month and just finished reading Mary Shelley’s memorable novel Frankenstein today. (Our informal group read one chapter per day starting on May 15, a fateful day that I shall always remember, for it was the day of my father’s burial.) For me, the parallels between the Dr Victor Frankenstein’s monster and the Tyrell Corporation’s humanoid replicants in the original Blade Runner are haunting. Although the monster is described as “hideous” and “ugly”, while the Nexus-6 replicants are physically attractive, both are intelligent, emotional, and noble beings who rebel against their respective creators. I also wonder whether Sam Altman or anyone in his circle has taken the time to peruse Mary Shelley’s cautionary tale …

Wait, what are the “positive” aspects of royalty?

I dedicate this beautiful ballad to my loving wife Sydjia …

Today (Sunday, 9 June) is my third and final fun-filled day at this year’s Manifest Festival at the enchanting Lighthaven campus in beautiful Berkeley, California. In addition to a plethora of talks on various aspects of prediction markets (the main theme of the conference), I have also attended a wide variety of unorthodox but memorable events, including an informal “speed friending” activity led by Ricki Heicken, a hands-on workshop for YouTube creators led by Justin Kuiper, and an interactive session on “Why are you stuck on your novel?” led by Sy Etirabys. Moreover, I am happy to report that many of talks at “Manifest 2024” are being recorded and will be posted to Manifest’s website (see here) in about two weeks. In the meantime, I will be presenting my work on retrodiction markets later today.