prior probability

That is the title of my most recent work-in-progress, which I dedicate to the memory of my father, Francisco Guerra, a veteran of Brigade 2506, Sixth Battalion. Below is an excerpt from the introduction to my paper:

I recently discovered that my late father, Francisco Guerra, was a veteran of the legendary “Brigada de Asalto 2506”, an idealistic group of mostly young men who fought to liberate their beloved Cuba in April 1961…. In this work, I wish to share a few more facts about this fateful moment in Cuban-American history — not only general information about the overall composition of the Brigade; but also some details specific to my father’s unit, the Sixth Battalion.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tessellation

Note: Today (4 June 2024) marks the 35th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

The Jevons paradox refers to the unintended consequences that can result from technological progress: on the one hand, improvements or innovations in technology not only increase the efficiency with which a given resource is used, reducing the cost of any one use of that resource; but at the same time, those very improvements and innovations can also increase the overall demand for that resource, thus cancelling out or reversing the initial cost-savings and efficiency gains!

For an everyday example of this economic puzzle, look no further than Email, social media, etc. These things make it more easier than ever before to communicate with other people, thus increasing the overall level of one’s workload, since we now have to constantly check our emails and DMs to stay on top of things.

Bonus question: Does the Jevons paradox also explain the “enshittification” of the Internet more generally? See also: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/12/20/the-efficiency-dilemma and the tweet below:

This weekend, I attended the Ninth Annual Civil Procedure Workshop (#CPW9) at the venerable law school formerly known (until just last year) as the Hastings College of Law (now UC Law), and one of my favorite works hands down at this year’s conference was a totally unexpected one: a forthcoming non-fiction novel authored by one of my esteemed law professor colleagues. She shared an extended excerpt from her literary creation with us but asked us not to reveal any details about her new book until it is published, since one part of her story involves a law case that is still pending before the courts. All I am going to say (for now) is that, based on what I have read thus far, my colleague and new friend is not only one hell of a good storyteller; she is also an inspiration: I hope to follow in her literary footsteps next fall, when I will be on sabbatical to finish writing my own “law and pop culture” book.

It’s been a few years since I have dabbled in game theory (see here and here, for example). Nevertheless, building on the work of Andrew Munro, Scott Page, and others, I am happy to report that I will be presenting my “Colonel Blotto Litigation Game” work-in-progress — a draft of which is available here — at the Ninth Annual Civil Procedure Workshop (CPW9) at UC Law SF in beautiful downtown San Francisco this weekend. My talk and paper will be dedicated to the memory of my father, Don Francisco Guerra.

To close out the month of May, below are my previous posts on Assault Brigade 2506, on the Cuban Liberation Air Force, and on the Sixth Battalion (my father’s unit) — may he rest in peace and may our beloved Cuba be one day free:

1. Brigade 2506: a footnote
2. Homenaje a la Brigada 2506
3. Ode to the Sixth Battalion: Pre-invasion Preparations and Landing at Playa Girón
4. Ode to the Sixth Battalion: The Beachhead
5. Ode to the Sixth Battalion: The Battle of the Rotunda
6. Ode to the Sixth Battalion: The Road with No Name
7. Ode to the Sixth Battalion: The Last Stand of Girón
8. Who betrayed the men of Brigade 2506?
9. A little piece of Cuba has died
10. In memoriam