Why don’t law professors try using “mini-prediction markets” to forecast the outcome of Supreme Court cases or the outcome of bills pending before Congress? That is, why don’t law professors let their students, colleagues, and friends bet on the future outcome of cases and legislation? This tantalizing possibility is one of the future goals of this website (*), and Microsoft, Google, and a few other companies have already experimented with internal prediction markets, but to our knowledge, this idea has not really been tried in academia. Why not? (Here are some possible answers.)
(*) We need some help, though.