Tag Archives: Prediction Markets

Scottish non-independence prediction markets

Posted on September 8, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Scotland about 50% support for independence, but markets still only about 25% that it actually passes in 2 weeks: http://t.co/rm2GgyPurz — David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) September 7, 2014 The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some survey … Continue reading →

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We saw a Black Swan today!

Posted on July 9, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Nate Silver — yes, that Nate Silver, who had predicted Brasil to win the World Cup (see diagram in the post above, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight) — compares his complex (and, dare we say, opaque) statistical methods, like the Soccer Power … Continue reading →

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Law School Prediction Markets?

Posted on February 22, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Why don’t law professors try using “mini-prediction markets” to forecast the outcome of Supreme Court cases or the outcome of bills pending before Congress? That is, why don’t law professors let their students, colleagues, and friends bet on the future outcome of … Continue reading →

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Why are prediction markets illegal?

Posted on February 21, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Because regulators — the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in particular, which has the legal authority to regulate commodity markets — have declared prediction markets to be “contrary to the public interest”. But if the “public interest” is the … Continue reading →

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Robin Hanson asks, “Why do bets look bad?”

Posted on July 30, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

prior probability really enjoys Robin Hanson’s blog Overcoming Bias and admire his cutting-edge academic work, especially his project on prediction markets. Recently, Hanson proposed a number of reasons why people might reasonably refuse to place bets to back up their beliefs. Although betting might not be … Continue reading →

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Royal probabilities

Posted on July 22, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Before the birth of a baby boy today to Kate & William, the probability that the baby would in fact be a boy was 1/2, but what is the probability that the boy’s grandfather, Prince Charles, will ever ascend the … Continue reading →

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