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Tag Archives: Prediction Markets
Scottish non-independence prediction markets
Scotland about 50% support for independence, but markets still only about 25% that it actually passes in 2 weeks: http://t.co/rm2GgyPurz — David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) September 7, 2014 The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some survey … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics, Voting Tagged Prediction Markets Leave a comment
We saw a Black Swan today!
Nate Silver — yes, that Nate Silver, who had predicted Brasil to win the World Cup (see diagram in the post above, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight) — compares his complex (and, dare we say, opaque) statistical methods, like the Soccer Power … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged Luck, Prediction Markets, Sports Leave a comment
Law School Prediction Markets?
Why don’t law professors try using “mini-prediction markets” to forecast the outcome of Supreme Court cases or the outcome of bills pending before Congress? That is, why don’t law professors let their students, colleagues, and friends bet on the future outcome of … Continue reading
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Why are prediction markets illegal?
Because regulators — the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in particular, which has the legal authority to regulate commodity markets — have declared prediction markets to be “contrary to the public interest”. But if the “public interest” is the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged Law, Prediction Markets 2 Comments
Robin Hanson asks, “Why do bets look bad?”
prior probability really enjoys Robin Hanson’s blog Overcoming Bias and admire his cutting-edge academic work, especially his project on prediction markets. Recently, Hanson proposed a number of reasons why people might reasonably refuse to place bets to back up their beliefs. Although betting might not be … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged bets, legal failure, Prediction Markets, Robin Hanson Leave a comment
Before the birth of a baby boy today to Kate & William, the probability that the baby would in fact be a boy was 1/2, but what is the probability that the boy’s grandfather, Prince Charles, will ever ascend the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged bets, Prediction Markets, Prince Charles, Probability, Robin Hanson Leave a comment