Alan Turing’s simple machine intelligence test has been in the news lately. It is worth noting that there are many possible versions of Turing’s test. One version of the test, for example, is currently the subject of a $20,000 bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor. In their version of the Turing test, the test must take place over three hours and two out of three judges must be convinced that the computer is a human. You can read the detailed terms of this $20,000 bet between Kurzweil and Kapor here. (Could IBM’s Watson computer pass this test?)
Hey, does Ray need to pay up, or not yet?
prior probability 