Sportswriter David Levin identified three reasons why defensive end Jadeveon Clowney might turn out to be a “bust” or bad draft pick for the Houston Texans. Although it remains to be seen at this early stage how Clowney’s pro-football career will turn out, the Clowney draft pick poses an important theoretical and practical question: how can teams forecast the future of their players?
Bayesian Update (4 July 2019): Although Jadeveon Clowney got off to a rough start, he has since more than lived up to expectations. More importantly, could we apply the Bayesian forecasting methods developed by Philip Tetlock (see here for a summary) to the world of sports?
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Like the good Bayesians we aspire to be, we are updating our Jadeveon Clowney post from 8 September 2014. Happy Independence Day!