Jadeveon Clowney and the future of forecasting

Sportswriter David Levin identified three reasons why defensive end Jadeveon Clowney might turn out to be a “bust” or bad draft pick for the Houston Texans. Although it remains to be seen at this early stage how Clowney’s pro-football career will turn out, the Clowney draft pick poses an important theoretical and practical question: how can teams forecast the future of their players?

Bayesian Update (4 July 2019): Although Jadeveon Clowney got off to a rough start, he has since more than lived up to expectations. More importantly, could we apply the Bayesian forecasting methods developed by Philip Tetlock (see here for a summary) to the world of sports?



About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
This entry was posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Sports and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Jadeveon Clowney and the future of forecasting

  1. Pingback: Jadeveon Clowney and the sunk cost fallacy | prior probability

  2. Reblogged this on prior probability and commented:

    Like the good Bayesians we aspire to be, we are updating our Jadeveon Clowney post from 8 September 2014. Happy Independence Day!

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