Scottish non-independence prediction markets

The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some survey polls put the “Yes” vote (in favor of Scottish Independence) at 51%. Prediction markets, by contrast, are less sanguine (see tweet above) about a pro-independence victory. What gives? On another note, shouldn’t tradition and the 1707 Acts of Union count for something? Shouldn’t the “Yes” vote require at least a two-thirds super-majority, not a simple majority? (Hat tip, again, to the amazing Tyler Cowen.)

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
This entry was posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics, Voting and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

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