The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled to take place on 18 September 2014. Some survey polls put the “Yes” vote (in favor of Scottish Independence) at 51%. Prediction markets, by contrast, are less sanguine (see tweet above) about a pro-independence victory. What gives? On another note, shouldn’t tradition and the 1707 Acts of Union count for something? Shouldn’t the “Yes” vote require at least a two-thirds super-majority, not a simple majority? (Hat tip, again, to the amazing Tyler Cowen.)
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