That is the premise of our latest paper “Visualizing Probabilistic Proof.” (We’ve blogged about this paper before, but the latest draft of our paper is available on SSRN here and will be published in an upcoming volume of The Washington University Jurisprudence Review. By the way, our paper is full of diagrams and is “only” 37 pages long, which is short by law review standards!) In brief, in our probabilistic proof paper, we try to solve the Blue Bus Problem, a hypothetical puzzle often presented by law professors when they teach Evidence. Unlike most treatments of the Blue Bus Problem, however, our solution uses Bayesian methods. In a future post, we will talk about a related problem known as the Gatecrasher Paradox.
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