Tom Brady’s footballs (part 7): some problems with the contagion model

We presented our contagion model of rule evasion in our previous post. Here, however, we shall point out some flaws with our model. To begin with, our model implies that actors are either law-abiding or law-evading, when in reality, actors might adopt a mixed strategy, i.e. complying with probability p and evading with probability 1 – p. Another flaw is that our model does not specifically take into account detection uncertainty or legal uncertainty. In reality, we would expect the levels of such uncertainty to have an effect on the little c and T variables in our model, i.e. on the background rate of compliance and on the transmission rate. In any case, we are not sure why some models distinguish between detection uncertainty and legal uncertainty. So, we need to find a way of incorporating uncertainty in our contagion model, although we would lump both forms of uncertainty together.

Happy birthday Adys Ann!

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